As the world enters the latter half of a decisive decade for climate action, scientists warn that the window to prevent the most damaging impacts of global warming is rapidly narrowing. To keep global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, carbon emissions must be cut nearly in half by 2030. Yet as 2026 begins, the world remains dangerously off track, with the risk of further backsliding growing even as some unexpected pockets of progress emerge.
Across major economies, climate action is increasingly shaped by political, economic and technological crosscurrents. In the United States, President Donald Trump’s renewed push to roll back climate regulations and revive fossil fuel production has created fresh uncertainty for renewable energy. At the same time, soaring electricity demand from data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure is providing unexpected momentum for clean power, batteries and even nuclear energy, creating a contradictory but powerful force reshaping the energy transition.
China’s role will be central to the global climate picture in 2026. As the world’s largest carbon emitter and a dominant supplier of clean technology, Beijing is expected to unveil a new five-year economic plan that will signal how seriously it intends to pursue decarbonisation. Observers will closely watch China’s carbon intensity targets, which remain off track under its previous plan. How aggressively the government acts could determine whether China reclaims climate leadership at a time when international resolve appears fragile.
Global climate diplomacy also faces a pivotal year. International negotiators will attempt to revive stalled efforts to phase out fossil fuels and halt deforestation, following inconclusive talks at last year’s COP30 summit. With Brazil holding influence over the agenda and Turkey set to host COP31 in November, 2026 will test whether multilateral climate cooperation can regain momentum amid geopolitical tension and competing national interests.
Some of the most encouraging climate developments are expected to come from developing countries. Nations such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Ethiopia have demonstrated how access to affordable clean technology, largely supplied by China, can accelerate rapid transitions away from fossil fuels. As Chinese exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles expand, similar shifts are likely to appear across Asia, Africa and Latin America in the coming year.
Investment in climate technology rebounded in 2025 and is expected to strengthen further in 2026, driven in part by surging power demand from AI and cloud computing. Grid upgrades, battery storage, renewable energy and emerging nuclear technologies are drawing investor interest, though concerns remain over whether the AI boom can sustain long-term climate innovation without straining energy systems.
Nuclear power is positioned for renewed attention as governments and technology companies seek reliable, carbon-free electricity. While dozens of reactors are under construction worldwide, the sector’s slow pace means that significant new capacity will take years to come online. Still, regulatory easing and fresh funding suggest nuclear energy will gain political and commercial traction through 2026.
Artificial intelligence itself presents both opportunity and risk. While AI-driven efficiency could reduce emissions, the sector’s enormous energy appetite is testing power grids and infrastructure. Delays in permitting and grid connections threaten to constrain growth, raising questions about whether the AI investment surge can continue unchecked.
Climate change in the Arctic is emerging as a global issue rather than a regional one. Record-breaking temperatures are accelerating ice melt, raising sea levels and increasing atmospheric carbon release. At the same time, economic and geopolitical interest in Arctic shipping routes, minerals and territory is intensifying, drawing the region deeper into international competition.
The global electric vehicle market is also expected to diverge sharply. While EV sales continue to rise worldwide, supported by affordable Chinese models, growth in the United States is slowing due to the withdrawal of federal subsidies and trade barriers. This split underscores how policy choices increasingly shape climate outcomes across regions.
Financial institutions and governments are facing mounting pressure over climate responsibility. In New York City, debates over whether pension funds should continue working with BlackRock reflect a broader reckoning over the role of asset managers in addressing global warming. Similar scrutiny is spreading across public and private finance.
Demand for climate risk data is accelerating as communities, businesses and insurers seek clearer insight into floods, heatwaves and extreme weather. Yet this push comes as the US administration moves to weaken scientific institutions and limit access to climate data, raising fears about the reliability of future climate information.
Renewable energy in the United States faces a challenging year as tax incentives fade and new regulatory barriers emerge. Solar and wind growth is slowing, though battery storage remains a rare bright spot, supported by both policy incentives and rising electricity demand.
Major institutional changes are also looming. The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to finalise a move that could strip the federal government of its authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, setting the stage for a prolonged legal battle with far-reaching implications for climate governance. Meanwhile, the future of FEMA remains uncertain as the administration considers sweeping reforms to disaster response at a time when climate-driven emergencies are becoming more frequent.
California, long seen as a climate leader, will spend much of 2026 defending its policies against federal challenges. While national rollbacks threaten progress, state and local governments continue pushing forward with fossil fuel bans and clean energy mandates.
Together, these fourteen trends reveal a world at a crossroads. The forces shaping the climate in 2026 reflect a fragile balance between political resistance, technological momentum and the growing physical reality of climate change. Whether progress accelerates or stalls will depend not only on ambition, but on whether governments, markets and societies choose to act before the narrowing window closes further.