The Indus Waters Treaty, a Cold War-era landmark signed in 1960, is facing an unprecedented crisis as climate change reshapes the hydrology of South Asia. In December 2025, Pakistan raised urgent alarms regarding “unusual and abrupt variations” in the flow of the Chenab River, suggesting that sudden changes in discharge patterns were impacting downstream water security.
These allegations have resurfaced at a particularly volatile time, as the treaty currently stands in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attacks in April 2025. Experts argue that the framework, which was designed for a world of predictable river flows, is ill-equipped to handle a future defined by glacial melt and erratic weather.
A central concern for researchers is the rapid warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, which is heating at nearly twice the global average. Projections indicate that Himalayan glaciers could lose up to 75 percent of their volume by 2100, potentially leading to water deficits of 50 percent in the Indus River Basin as early as 2030.
India, which faces a doubling of its annual water demand by the end of the decade, finds itself increasingly constrained by the treaty’s original terms. Under the current 1960 arrangement, Pakistan controls nearly 80 percent of the system’s waters despite 40 percent of the catchment area lying within Indian territory an asymmetry that researchers say is becoming unsustainable in the face of rising domestic water stress.
Legal and environmental experts are calling for a fundamental reimagining of the treaty, shifting it from a static water-sharing deal to a dynamic, climate-resilient security framework. Modern international water law, such as the 2014 UN Watercourses Convention, emphasizes “equitable and reasonable utilization” based on current hydrological and ecological realities rather than historical averages.
India is being urged to advocate for a data-rich monitoring system that utilizes real-time satellite imagery and high-resolution modeling to track snowpack variability and precipitation trends. This would move the discourse away from zero-sum political accusations toward a science-based management approach similar to models used in the Rhine or Mekong river basins.
The treaty’s most significant weakness is its inherent rigidity, as it lacks provisions for periodic reviews or triggers to respond to extreme climate events. As groundwater levels in states like Punjab and Haryana continue to fall by up to one meter annually, the need for a recalibrated framework that allows for more flexible surface water access has become a strategic necessity.
To remain relevant, the Indus Waters Treaty must evolve to include standing review mechanisms and adaptive governance strategies. Without these updates, routine fluctuations in river flow caused by a warming planet risk becoming permanent diplomatic flashpoints, threatening the economic and food security of millions across the subcontinent.