Large parts of India are experiencing unusually cold conditions in the opening weeks of 2026, with temperatures dipping well below seasonal norms across east, central and southern regions. Meteorologists are now closely monitoring the possibility of a rare and intense cold blast affecting north India later this month, potentially driven by an Arctic-origin weather system.
The cold spell, which began in December 2025 in several regions, has intensified in early January. On January 12, multiple locations across the plains of northwest India recorded sub-zero or near-zero minimum temperatures. The outskirts of Gurgaon reported temperatures close to minus one degree Celsius, while Fatehpur Shekawati in Rajasthan recorded a low of minus 3.5 degrees Celsius on January 11. Though such temperatures are not entirely unprecedented in northwest India, they remain uncommon for the plains.
What has drawn particular concern is the persistence and geographic spread of cold conditions across eastern, central and southern India, regions that do not typically experience prolonged winter chill. Meteorologists note that these below-normal temperatures have continued for weeks, marking an unusual winter pattern.
“Winter 2025–26 in India has witnessed cold-like conditions marked by persistently below-normal minimum temperatures across north, central and east India,” wrote Debashish Jena, a research scholar in agro-meteorology at Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, in a public post on social media platform X.
In southern India, the cold has taken an especially rare form. Several cities in Tamil Nadu recorded extremely narrow differences between daytime highs and nighttime lows. In Chennai, the maximum temperature on January 11 hovered around 24 degrees Celsius, while the minimum on the following morning was approximately 21.7 degrees Celsius.
Independent weather analyst known as Tamil Nadu Weatherman described the situation as highly unusual. He noted that a difference of just one to two degrees Celsius between day and night temperatures is rare for the region, adding that daytime sweater use in Chennai is almost unheard of, even during winter.
According to meteorological analysis, the anomaly is being driven by a combination of large-scale atmospheric factors. These include La Niña–related strengthening of the Walker and Hadley circulations, a southward shift and intensification of the subtropical westerly jet stream, frequent western disturbances, and strong cold air advection from higher latitudes. Clear skies following these disturbances have further enhanced night-time radiative cooling, prolonging cold nights and cold wave conditions.
La Niña, the cooler phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, typically brings colder-than-normal winters to India. It alters global circulation patterns by influencing atmospheric loops such as the Walker and Hadley circulations, which redistribute heat and moisture across the tropics and towards higher latitudes.
Interestingly, the early part of the winter season remained unusually dry and warm across north and northwest India, despite La Niña conditions and recurring western disturbances. Snowfall in the Himalayan region was limited, and rainfall across the plains remained scarce. Data from the India Meteorological Department shows that northwest India recorded an 84.8 per cent rainfall deficit in December 2025.
The rainfall shortage was nationwide. December rainfall across India was nearly 69 per cent below normal. East and northeast India saw a deficit exceeding 95 per cent, while central India recorded almost no rainfall. Even the southern peninsula, which receives rain during the northeast monsoon, experienced a shortfall of more than 37 per cent.
Looking ahead, meteorologists are watching developments that could trigger an exceptionally cold spell in northwest India later in January. Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest a possible southward extension of a powerful Siberian high-pressure system, potentially pushing extremely cold air into parts of South Asia.
Meteorologist Ryan Maue noted the need to closely monitor what could be a historic polar vortex extension affecting regions from Afghanistan and Iran to Pakistan. Climate scientist Pradeep also flagged the possibility of an unprecedented cold wave over northwest India between January 24 and 30.
However, experts caution against drawing firm conclusions at this stage. While the ECMWF model indicates extreme cold conditions, other global forecasting systems, including the United States’ Global Forecast System, do not currently predict temperatures falling to similar extremes.
Weather analysts emphasise that long-range forecasts remain uncertain and subject to change. With nearly ten days still remaining, model projections may evolve significantly as new data becomes available.
For now, India remains in the grip of an unusual winter, marked by cold conditions far beyond their usual geographic limits, even as scientists continue to assess whether a rare and severe cold wave may still be on the horizon.