Global agriculture has crossed a critical threshold where water use has exceeded sustainable limits, pushing food systems into what the United Nations now calls a state of “global water bankruptcy.” A new report warns that decades of over-extraction, land degradation, and climate stress have transformed what was once considered a temporary water crisis into a long-term structural emergency threatening food security, livelihoods, and economic stability worldwide.
Released on January 20, 2026, by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, the report states that rivers, aquifers, lakes, wetlands, soils, and glaciers in many regions have been damaged beyond realistic prospects of full recovery. Agriculture, which consumes nearly 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawals, is at the center of this unfolding crisis.
Agriculture Is Living Beyond Renewable Water Limits
For decades, agricultural expansion was built on the assumption that water systems could sustain rising withdrawals through infrastructure development, efficiency improvements, and short-term crisis management. The report makes clear that this assumption is no longer valid. In many regions, long-term water use has surpassed renewable inflows and safe depletion thresholds, placing agriculture in a permanent deficit.
According to the findings, around three billion people and more than half of global food production are located in regions where total water storage, including surface water, groundwater, soil moisture, snow, and ice, is either declining or unstable. More than 170 million hectares of irrigated cropland are under high or very high water stress, an area roughly equivalent to the combined landmass of France, Spain, Germany, and Italy.
Land degradation has further intensified the crisis. Over half of the world’s agricultural land is already moderately or severely degraded, weakening soil moisture retention and accelerating desertification. Salinisation alone has damaged more than 100 million hectares of cropland globally, eroding yields in key food-producing regions.
Water Stress Is Driving Food Insecurity and Migration
As water-stressed basins struggle to sustain historical levels of agricultural production, the report warns that food insecurity and livelihood losses are becoming more widespread. Reduced water availability is already leading to lower yields, higher production risks, and greater volatility in food systems, particularly in regions heavily dependent on irrigation.
These pressures are translating directly into household-level impacts. Rural communities are facing declining incomes, unstable food access, and growing uncertainty. The report highlights that these conditions are driving distress migration and internal displacement, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, where agriculture remains a primary source of employment.
Drought, once viewed mainly as a natural climatic hazard, is now increasingly human-driven in both origin and impact. Between 2022 and 2023, more than 1.8 billion people lived under drought conditions, while annual global drought-related damages approached $307 billion, exceeding the GDP of most UN member states.
The report also flags rising risks linked to glacier loss. Since 1970, the world has lost over 30 percent of its glacier mass. Around 1.5 to 2 billion people depend partly on glacier-fed river systems such as the Indus, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Yangtze, and major Andean rivers. As these systems pass peak water and enter long-term decline, irrigated agriculture faces increasingly unreliable late-season flows.
The UN warns that historical assumptions about water availability no longer hold. In water-bankrupt systems, decisions about crops, irrigation, employment, and social stability are now deeply interconnected. Without a fundamental shift in water governance and agricultural planning, the report cautions that global food systems could face escalating economic, social, and political disruption in the years ahead.