India could be heading towards another challenging monsoon season as early climate signals point to the possible development of an El Nino later this year. While meteorological agencies say certainty will emerge only by April, the likelihood of weaker rainfall during the crucial monsoon months has already raised concerns among policymakers, farmers and climate experts.
An El Nino refers to the warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. Historically, such warming events have often coincided with subdued monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, making them a key factor in seasonal climate forecasting.
El Nino Probability May Rise After July
According to M. Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue until July. However, there is a growing probability that conditions may shift towards El Nino thereafter. Speaking during IMD’s monthly weather briefing, he noted that forecasts made before April tend to be less reliable, and a clearer picture will only emerge with updated model runs in the coming months.
Climate models currently indicate a more than 50 per cent chance of El Nino conditions setting in after June, with the probability rising to nearly 70 per cent during July, August and September the most critical months for India’s summer monsoon.
Risk of Sub-Par Monsoon and Drought
Private weather agency Skymet has echoed these concerns, warning that early model projections for 2026 suggest a likely El Nino, which could result in a sub-par monsoon and heightened drought risk across parts of the country. Historically, six out of every ten El Nino years have been associated with below-normal rainfall in India.
The last global El Nino event occurred during 2023–24 and was accompanied by rainfall deficits across several regions, underscoring the potential implications of a repeat event.
Hotter, Drier Conditions Already Emerging
IMD’s near-term outlook also paints a worrying picture. February is expected to witness below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, with exceptions in some areas of northwest and east-central India. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal over much of India, barring parts of the southern region.
January rainfall was already recorded at 31 per cent below the long-period average, adding to concerns over moisture stress early in the year. The IMD has also observed a decline in winter snowfall, a trend that scientists believe may be linked to the broader impacts of climate change.
As India waits for more definitive signals in April, experts stress the importance of preparedness. With agriculture, water availability and food prices closely tied to monsoon performance, even the possibility of an El Nino underscores the need for early planning and adaptive strategies.