India’s globally celebrated tiger conservation programme is entering a complex phase as rising tiger numbers begin to strain forest ecosystems and intensify human-wildlife conflict. Wildlife scientists and forest officials across tiger-rich states are now calling for a serious rethink of the concept of “carrying capacity”, a term that has long sparked discomfort among conservationists but is gaining renewed urgency.
Several states with strong tiger populations, including Karnataka, have flagged the issue, arguing that while conservation measures have boosted numbers, forest landscapes themselves have not expanded. This growing imbalance is expected to be a key discussion point at the upcoming Global Big Cat Alliance summit to be held in Bandipur and Nagarhole Tiger Reserves in February.
Why Carrying Capacity Is Back in Focus
The debate draws heavily from scientific findings outlined in the 2018 report on tigers, co-predators and prey released by the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change in collaboration with the Wildlife Institute of India. The study defined prey-based carrying capacity and calculated tiger density using prey availability as the primary factor.
According to the report, tall-grass Terai and Shivalik hill habitats recorded the highest tiger densities, while central India and parts of the Western Ghats showed moderate numbers. In contrast, the southern Western Ghats and the Northeast hills exhibited significantly lower tiger densities, highlighting the diversity of India’s tiger landscapes and the limits of applying uniform benchmarks nationwide.
Researchers had cautioned reserve managers against artificially increasing tiger densities through habitat manipulation or prey augmentation. Instead, the scientific recommendation emphasised expanding tiger-occupied landscapes rather than overcrowding existing reserves.
Rising Conflict Signals Ecological Stress
Wildlife experts say that warning has become even more relevant today. Conservation efforts have succeeded in increasing tiger populations, but forests are under growing pressure from human activity, shrinking corridors and changing land use. As a result, the stress on prey species and co-predators has intensified.
In several regions, tigers are increasingly dependent on domestic animals for food. In Sariska, more than half of the tiger diet now comes from livestock, while forest boundary areas in Karnataka report even higher dependence. Similar trends are visible among lions in Gujarat and leopards across the country, pointing to a broader ecological imbalance.
Camera trap data and field studies have revealed unusually high tiger concentrations in some areas, with multiple tigers sharing spaces far smaller than the traditionally accepted territorial range. Forest officials warn that such overcrowding is a key driver behind rising incidents of conflict, including attacks on livestock and humans.
States Move Towards Region-Specific Models
Forest departments are now moving towards region-specific carrying capacity assessments rather than relying on national averages. Karnataka has already constituted a dedicated team to prepare a detailed report, comparing its findings with data from other tiger-bearing states.
Scientists stress that carrying capacity should be viewed not as a tool to limit tiger numbers, but as a baseline to understand how much ecological pressure a forest can realistically sustain. They underline that the long-term survival of tigers depends equally on healthy prey populations, co-predators and intact habitats.
As India continues to showcase its tiger recovery as a conservation success story, experts say the next challenge lies in ensuring that growth remains ecologically sustainable before success itself becomes a threat.