When devastating floods swept through Mozambique in 2000, the story of a baby born in a tree as her mother clung to branches above the rising Limpopo River captured international attention. The child, later nicknamed Rosita by the press, became a symbol of hope and resilience in the face of disaster.
But her life, which began amid catastrophe, ended quietly on 12 January 2026. Rosita reportedly died of anaemia at a provincial health centre, a condition that could have been treated within a stronger and better-resourced health system. Her death coincided with yet another wave of severe flooding in southern Mozambique, underscoring the country’s persistent vulnerability.
In late January 2026, weeks of heavy rainfall submerged large parts of southern Mozambique, affecting more than 600,000 people. Floodwaters lingered in low-lying areas due to continued upstream inflows and high dam discharges. Towns such as Xai-Xai and Chókwè once again faced inundation as the Limpopo River overflowed its banks.
Rosita’s story reflects a broader structural reality. Research conducted under the Inclusive Growth in Mozambique initiative reveals that vulnerability in the country is deeply rooted in poverty, weak public services, and widening inequality. The communities that suffer the most during floods are the same ones that face chronic deprivation in health care, education, infrastructure, and economic opportunity.
Poverty and Inequality Beneath the Waters
Findings from the programme’s research show that progress in reducing multidimensional poverty stalled after 2015. Since then, the absolute number of people living in poverty has increased, particularly in rural areas and in central provinces.
While real consumption rose across all income groups until 2014/15, wealthier households benefited disproportionately. After 2015, relative gaps widened further, deepening inequality. Horizontal inequalities those linked to province, ethnolinguistic identity, and the urban-rural divide have also expanded over time.
Urban areas have seen faster improvements in living conditions, while progress in rural communities has slowed. Limited internal migration has prevented economic convergence between regions. As a result, geographic and socioeconomic divides have become more entrenched.
These disparities mean that floods do not strike evenly. Communities already grappling with poverty and limited services face greater exposure, heavier losses, and longer recovery periods when disasters occur.
At the household level, the economic impact of flooding is immediate and severe. Studies show that cyclones, floods, and droughts can reduce per capita food consumption by 25% to 30%, leading to significant increases in poverty rates.
Research on Mozambique’s vulnerability to natural shocks indicates that affected households experience short-term consumption losses of between 11% and 17%, with rural poor households suffering the most. In previous flooding events, the national poverty rate rose by six percentage points as a direct consequence.
When incomes fall and assets are depleted, families lose access to adequate nutrition, healthcare, and education. These losses compound over time, reinforcing long-term deprivation and making it increasingly difficult to recover before the next shock arrives.
Rosita’s death, linked to treatable anaemia, highlights how systemic gaps in healthcare and social protection can turn manageable conditions into fatal outcomes.
As climate change drives more frequent and intense weather events, Mozambique faces the risk of entrenched cycles of vulnerability. Breaking this pattern requires a shift from reactive disaster response to proactive resilience-building.
First, protecting household consumption immediately after disasters is essential to prevent families from falling into structural poverty traps. Once emergency assistance has been delivered, temporary and well-targeted cash transfers must follow swiftly. Delays in payment distribution have been shown to significantly weaken household resilience.
Second, rapid restoration of livelihoods is critical. Evidence from Cyclone Idai in 2019 demonstrated that small enterprises recovered more quickly when affected individuals received immediate liquidity support, loosely tied to the scale of damage and sector of activity. In flood-prone districts, families dependent on informal trade or small-scale production cannot afford lengthy bureaucratic procedures. Their recovery hinges on fast access to financial support that enables them to restart economic activity.
Third, long-term resilience demands sustained public investment in health, education, water systems, and local infrastructure, particularly in regions repeatedly hit by disasters. Structural inequalities must be addressed directly if the country is to reduce disaster risk in a meaningful and lasting way.
Mozambique’s experience illustrates that resilience cannot rely solely on individual courage or community solidarity. While stories like Rosita’s once symbolized hope amid tragedy, they also reveal the fragility of survival in the absence of strong institutions and inclusive development.
As the Limpopo River rises again and again, the challenge for Mozambique is not only to respond to immediate crises but to confront the deeper inequalities that determine who survives, who suffers, and who recovers.
Building resilience requires deliberate, equitable investment that ensures vulnerable communities have secure livelihoods, functioning healthcare systems, and reliable infrastructure. Without such action, floods will continue to expose and intensify the fault lines that run beneath the surface of Mozambican society.