The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is a strong possibility of the development of El Niño during the second half of 2026, a shift that could significantly influence global weather patterns and potentially affect India’s crucial monsoon season.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon that occurs across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and has a far-reaching impact on weather conditions around the world. At present, the cooler ENSO phase known as La Niña is gradually weakening, and climate systems are expected to transition toward neutral conditions in the coming months.
Climate Models Indicate Possible Shift Later This Year
According to the WMO, the recent weak La Niña event is likely to fade soon, paving the way for ENSO-neutral conditions before potentially shifting toward a warming El Niño phase later in the year. Climate models from several forecasting agencies, including the India Meteorological Department (IMD), also suggest that El Niño conditions may begin to develop after July.
Sea surface temperature forecasts for the March to May period indicate that much of the world could experience above-average land temperatures. Such warming trends often accompany the early stages of El Niño development and can influence rainfall patterns across multiple continents.
### Possible Impact on India’s Southwest Monsoon
If El Niño forms during the second half of the year, it could coincide with India’s critical southwest monsoon season, which runs from June to September. During these four months, India typically receives more than 70 percent of its annual rainfall, making the monsoon vital for agriculture, water supply, and overall economic stability.
July and August are the peak monsoon months, accounting for more than half of the seasonal rainfall. Historically, several El Niño years have been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India, although meteorologists emphasize that the phenomenon is only one of several factors that influence seasonal weather.
Scientists caution that while the probability of El Niño formation is increasing, climate systems remain complex. Continued monitoring over the coming months will determine whether the warming trend strengthens into a full El Niño event and how it might affect regional weather patterns, particularly across South Asia.