Scientists say the narrow waterway separating Europe and Africa could eventually close as tectonic plate movements slowly reshape the region. New research suggests that geological forces beneath the Strait of Gibraltar may gradually transform the area over tens of millions of years.
The strait lies between Spain and Morocco, where the African Plate and Eurasian Plate slowly collide. Scientists say the complex tectonic boundary known as the Gibraltar Arc could eventually migrate westward into the Atlantic Ocean, beginning a long process that might one day close the gateway between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic.
Tectonic modeling reveals future movement of the Gibraltar Arc
The study was led by tectonics researcher João C. Duarte from the University of Lisbon, in collaboration with scientists from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz. Using advanced three-dimensional simulations, the research team examined how subduction zones regions where one tectonic plate sinks beneath another can restart and migrate across oceans.
Their modeling suggests that the Gibraltar Arc, currently in a relatively quiet phase, could begin expanding into the Atlantic Ocean within roughly 20 million years. Over extremely long geological timescales, this movement could gradually recycle oceanic crust and contribute to the eventual closure of the Atlantic basin.
Scientists describe the process as part of the Wilson Cycle, a geological pattern in which oceans open, expand, and eventually close over hundreds of millions of years as continents move and collide.
Region may become more tectonically active in the distant future
The research also highlights the role of “slab pull,” a tectonic force created when a sinking plate drags the rest of the plate behind it into the Earth’s mantle. This force can cause subduction systems to stall temporarily before restarting when stress builds within the Earth’s crust.
Scientists note that although these changes are unfolding on timescales far beyond human lifetimes, the region already has a history of powerful geological events. One example is the 1755 Lisbon earthquake, which triggered a devastating tsunami and caused widespread destruction across parts of Europe.
Despite the dramatic implications, researchers emphasize that the disappearance of the Strait of Gibraltar is not a near-term event. Geological processes move extremely slowly, often measured in centimeters per year.
However if subduction continues to spread across the Atlantic in the distant future, scientists say the ocean could eventually develop a tectonic system similar to the Pacific’s well-known volcanic belt, sometimes referred to as the Pacific Ring of Fire.
The findings published in the scientific journal Geology, highlight how even a relatively small geological region like the Strait of Gibraltar can play a key role in shaping the long-term evolution of Earth continents and oceans.