A new study has revealed that decades of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are significantly transforming forests in central India. Researchers say these climate shifts, combined with human activities such as logging, grazing, and land conversion, are altering forest health and increasing the risk of forest fires.
The research focuses on the Pachmarhi Biosphere Reserve in Madhya Pradesh, one of the most important forest ecosystems in central India. Scientists found that the reserve lost nearly 13 percent of its forest cover between 1972 and 2020, which equals about 391 square kilometres of forest area.
The study was conducted by researchers from the Central University of Jharkhand and Banaras Hindu University, who analyzed five decades of climate records along with satellite imagery to understand how climate variability is affecting the region’s forests.
Central India’s forests stretch across more than 40,000 square kilometres covering parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh. These forests are known for their biodiversity and are important habitats for wildlife, including large populations of tigers.
According to the researchers, the forests in the Pachmarhi Biosphere Reserve have experienced noticeable climate shifts over the last 50 years. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns have altered the natural balance that historically supported the growth and regeneration of tropical deciduous forests.
Amit Kumar, a professor at Banaras Hindu University and co-author of the study, explained that some forest patches recorded in the 1970s could no longer be identified in recent satellite images. Many of those areas have either turned into scrub forests or have been converted for other land uses.
Researchers say climate change is also increasing the risk of forest fires in the region. Their analysis showed that when maximum temperatures exceed 32°C, the probability of forest fires rises significantly. Long-term climate data indicates that temperatures in the biosphere reserve have steadily increased since the early 1970s, especially during the post-monsoon season.
The study also found that rainfall patterns have shifted over time. Earlier, much of the precipitation occurred during the post-monsoon period, but it has gradually moved toward the pre-monsoon months. This change affects the seasonal life cycles of trees, known as forest phenology, which determines when trees shed leaves, grow new foliage, and carry out photosynthesis.
The impact of these changes varies among different forest types. The reserve contains dry teak forests, moist teak forests, and dry mixed deciduous forests. Among them, dry teak forests experienced the most severe canopy loss, declining by more than 41 percent. Dry mixed deciduous forests also showed significant canopy reduction.
Experts say that ecosystems with higher biodiversity are generally more resilient to climate stress. Rajiv Chaturvedi, an associate professor at BITS Pilani Goa and leader of the IUCN Forest Ecosystems Specialist Group, explained that diverse forests are more likely to contain species capable of adapting to environmental changes, helping the ecosystem remain stable.
Despite the challenges, the Pachmarhi Biosphere Reserve still supports rich biodiversity. Surveys conducted across 62 forest plots recorded around 190 plant species, including 85 tree species, 23 shrubs, and 82 herbs. Nearly 37 percent of these species are listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, highlighting their conservation importance.
Scientists say restoration programs have led to some positive changes in recent years. Satellite data showed increased vegetation greening between 2006 and 2021, possibly due to conservation efforts such as the REDD+ initiative aimed at reducing deforestation and improving forest management.
However, researchers warn that these gains could be reversed if temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns become more unpredictable.
The study concludes that protecting central India’s forests will require stronger conservation strategies, sustainable land-use practices, and improved forest management. It also emphasizes the importance of involving local communities, who depend on forests for food, fuel, and other non-timber forest products, in long-term conservation efforts.