Pakistan is struggling to meet its water needs during the ongoing kharif cropping season due to consistently low water levels in its dams. This situation has been triggered by India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and is expected to worsen in the coming years as India moves forward with multiple projects on the Indus river system. With agriculture forming the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, the impact of this water shortage could be severe, potentially causing widespread economic damage.
India has begun implementing a broad plan to optimise the use of the Indus river waters, including inter-basin water transfers. One of the key projects under this plan is a proposed 113-kilometre-long canal designed to redirect surplus water from Jammu and Kashmir to the states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. Alongside this, India has been carrying out desilting and flushing operations at the Baglihar and Salal hydroelectric facilities on the Chenab river to increase storage and regulate water flow.
Medium and long-term strategies are also in progress. These include expediting the completion of major hydroelectric projects such as Pakal Dul, Ratle, Kiru, and Kwar, which will enable India to further control and utilise water from the Indus system.
In addition, the government plans to revive the Ujh multipurpose project in Kathua, Jammu and Kashmir, which will serve as a source of hydropower, irrigation, and drinking water. A broader inter-basin transfer plan is also being developed, connecting the Chenab with the Ravi-Beas-Sutlej system to fully exploit India’s share of both western and eastern rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty.
As India advances these water management projects, Pakistan’s rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — are witnessing reduced flows. This has led to water levels in Pakistan’s key reservoirs, Mangla and Tarbela, nearing ‘dead levels,’ where gravity alone cannot release water from the dams. This poses a serious risk to Pakistan’s ability to sustain irrigation and drinking water supply during this critical farming season.
Pakistan’s Punjab province, where kharif crop cultivation has started, is already receiving less water compared to the previous year. Although the monsoon season is expected to bring relief in about a month, the current shortfall is likely to affect crop productivity and water availability until then.
With the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam terror attack in April, India is no longer sharing upstream water data with Pakistan. This lack of information has made it harder for Pakistan to manage its water resources effectively, adding to the challenges of regulating water releases from its already depleted dams.
The situation highlights the growing risks for Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which remains highly dependent on reliable and sufficient water flows from rivers originating in India. Without improved water-sharing mechanisms or alternative water management solutions, Pakistan’s vulnerability to water scarcity is expected to increase in the years ahead.