A major new climate study has warned that the collapse of a vital Atlantic Ocean current could bring severe and unprecedented winter cold to northern Europe even in a world made warmer by greenhouse gas emissions.
The research, led by Dr René van Westen and a team from Utrecht University, was published on June 11, 2025, in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. It examined what could happen if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) were to completely shut down in the future.
The AMOC is an important part of the Earth’s climate system. It moves warm water from the tropics to northern latitudes and sends cold water back towards the equator along the ocean floor. This process helps balance temperatures across Europe and other regions. However, scientists have raised concerns that human-driven climate change, especially the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet, is disrupting this system. The freshwater from melting ice makes the seawater less salty and less dense, weakening the current.
The study used an advanced climate model to explore how Europe’s climate would change if the AMOC collapsed. The results were alarming. Under a moderate global warming scenario—where average global temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels—Europe could face intense winter cooling.
In this scenario, London’s average winter temperature could drop to 1.9°C, with extreme cold spells reaching nearly -19°C once every ten years. Edinburgh could see extreme lows near -30°C, while Oslo’s average winter temperature could fall to -16.5°C, with extreme lows near -48°C. Winter sea ice could reach the coasts of Great Britain and Scandinavia, bringing conditions similar to a mini ice age.
Summer temperatures in Europe, however, would remain warmer than historical levels, leading to huge seasonal differences—freezing winters followed by hot summers. In higher warming scenarios, where global temperatures rise by more than 4°C by 2100, the cold impact of an AMOC collapse would be weaker, and Europe would still gradually warm.
The study also warned that an AMOC shutdown could affect weather patterns far beyond Europe. It could shift the tropical rain belt southward, weakening important monsoons in India, West Africa, and the Amazon, and disturbing rainfall patterns in many tropical regions.
Researchers stressed that while the global climate is expected to warm, parts of Europe could become unexpectedly colder in winter if the AMOC fails. Such cold extremes could severely strain infrastructure, energy systems, and public services across the region.
The findings highlight the risks of crossing dangerous climate tipping points—where certain parts of the climate system change rapidly and irreversibly—making future climate impacts even harder to predict or control.