The latest climate update paints a stark picture of a planet heating faster than previously projected with cloud feedbacks, declining aerosol pollution and persistent greenhouse gas emissions driving an accelerating imbalance in Earth climate system. This update, which builds on the findings of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), reveals that radiative forcing the measure of human-driven heat trapped in Earth’s atmosphere has risen by 9% since 2019, reaching 2.97 W/m² in 2024.
This surge in radiative forcing is contributing to a rapid drawdown of the remaining carbon budget the limit of how much CO₂ can be emitted while still having a chance to stay below 1.5°C of global warming. As of early 2025, only around 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ remain in this budget. At the current pace of emissions, that allowance could be exhausted within just over three years. And considering scientific uncertainties, the real figure could range from 30 to 320 billion tonnes, meaning it could run out even sooner.
One of the underlying contributors to this acceleration is the continued decline in aerosol emissions, which historically had a temporary cooling effect by reflecting sunlight. While reducing air pollution has clear health benefits, the absence of this reflective layer is now intensifying the warming caused by greenhouse gases. Cutting methane emissions a short-lived but potent greenhouse gas could provide some counterbalance, but there is little evidence of meaningful declines, even with initiatives like the Global Methane Pledge.
Another major concern is the Earth’s energy imbalance the difference between the energy absorbed by the planet and the energy it radiates back into space. This imbalance has roughly doubled since the 1970s, reaching 1 W/m² on average from 2012 to 2024. Most of this excess heat around 91% is being absorbed by the oceans, which may temper land surface warming in the short term but leads to other serious consequences, including marine heatwaves, thermal expansion, and sea-level rise.
In fact, global sea levels have risen by 26 mm in just the last six years (2019–2024), more than double the long-term historical rate. This rise, fueled by melting ice sheets and warming oceans, is especially threatening for low-lying coastal regions, which are home to more than one billion people projected by 2050. Storm surges and coastal erosion are already becoming more intense and destructive in these areas.
Meanwhile, the Earth’s climate system is experiencing compounding changes. Shifts in wind patterns influenced by global warming are reshaping cloud formations. The most reflective clouds, typically found in equatorial and storm track zones, are shrinking, while broken, less reflective clouds in subtropical regions are expanding. This change allows more solar energy to reach the surface, fueling a positive feedback loop of warming that could further destabilize climate systems.
Despite the urgency, current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement remain insufficient to stop or even significantly slow the pace of warming. Although these plans represent some progress, global temperatures are still virtually certain to cross the 1.5°C threshold in the near future without drastic and immediate emissions reductions and major shifts in land use, particularly ending deforestation.
At the same time, climate science itself is under pressure. The ability to monitor critical indicators like greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat content, and deep-sea temperatures depends heavily on stable international collaboration and continued support for organizations like NASA and NOAA. Disruptions to these institutions threaten the continuity and reliability of essential long-term datasets needed to guide evidence-based policy decisions.
In summary, the latest climate data confirm a worsening trend across all major indicators. Without transformative action now both in emissions cuts and in strengthening global climate monitoring the opportunity to limit global warming to safe levels may soon be out of reach.