A breakthrough set of experiments led by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has provided compelling proof that improving weather observations in low-income countries leads to significantly better global weather forecasts. Commissioned by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the study marks a major milestone in forecasting science and could reshape climate resilience planning worldwide.
The experiments were conducted under the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF), a UN-backed initiative aimed at closing major data gaps in weather monitoring, particularly in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) regions that face some of the highest climate risks but have the weakest observational infrastructure.
Despite major technological strides in weather forecasting, large swathes of the world especially across Africa, the Pacific, and the Caribbean remain virtually invisible in the global climate observing system. These data blackouts severely limit the reliability of both regional and global forecasts.
In the study, ECMWF simulated the addition of new surface and upper-air observations, including weather balloons, across poorly monitored regions. When this improved data was integrated into ECMWF’s operational forecasting model, the impact was striking:
Forecast uncertainty in Africa dropped by over 30%.
In the Pacific, errors fell by up to 20%, with especially strong gains for island nations vulnerable to storms and sea-level rise.
Globally, forecast accuracy improved across hemispheres, showing how local data can have far-reaching benefits.
Upper-air observations, particularly radiosonde data, were identified as the most transformative, especially in tropical regions where weather changes rapidly and lack of data has long undermined forecast quality.
Crucially, these improvements were not just localized. Enhanced 12-hour forecasts in LDCs had a ripple effect, boosting forecast accuracy across borders—highlighting the global interconnectedness of the climate system.
The SOFF program, jointly managed by WMO, UNDP, and UNEP, is structured to fund and guide these investments through grants and technical assistance. It supports the establishment and maintenance of weather stations and upper-air sensors in alignment with the Global Basic Observing Network (GBON). Its emphasis on country-led, sustainable development ensures long-term results.
This evidence-backed study arrives at a crucial time, as climate extremes intensify and better forecasting becomes critical for saving lives, protecting crops, managing energy and logistics, and preparing communities for disaster.
With this new scientific validation, WMO and ECMWF are urging governments, international donors, and private investors to scale up contributions to SOFF. Ensuring that all countries—no matter their income—can contribute to and benefit from high-quality weather forecasts is no longer just an issue of fairness; it’s a global necessity.