As the Southwest Monsoon swept across India ahead of schedule on June 29, 2025, its early arrival brought more confusion than comfort. While much of northwest and central India was inundated with record-breaking rainfall, the eastern and northeastern states traditionally among the rainiest parts of the country have been grappling with persistent dry conditions. The divergence reveals a troubling monsoon imbalance that has now lasted three consecutive years.
By July 3, a third of India’s districts had received deficient or severely deficient rainfall, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Eight states and Union Territories reported rainfall shortfalls, with the entire eastern and northeastern belt showing a cumulative deficit of 18.6%.
At the same time, the national average rainfall showed a 12% surplus, with 14 states or UTs receiving more rain than usual. The epicenter of this anomaly was in the west: Rajasthan recorded a whopping 135% excess rainfall the highest in the country while Gujarat followed closely with a 100% surplus. Even the cold desert of Ladakh saw 255% more rain than average.
District-level data painted an even starker picture. Bhilwara in Rajasthan recorded an astonishing 314% surplus, and Sabarkantha in Gujarat logged 254% more than normal. In contrast, Meghalaya, a state known globally for its rain-rich towns like Mawsynram and Cherrapunji, experienced the worst deficit among all Indian states at 48%. West Garo Hills alone saw 79% less rain than usual, and even East Khasi Hills fell short by 40%.
The reasons behind this monsoon reversal lie in the atmospheric mechanics guiding the rains. IMD attributed the wet spell in the west and central India to five low-pressure systems three forming in the Bay of Bengal and two in the Arabian Sea. These systems, coupled with a southward-shifted monsoon trough, funneled moisture into areas like Rajasthan and Gujarat while leaving the northeastern corridor dry.
Arunachal Pradesh, a state blanketed by dense forests and dependent on consistent rainfall, registered a 40% deficit second only to Meghalaya. Its Anjaw district was the worst hit, receiving 69% less rain than expected. Similar concerns echoed across other northeastern states, where June also saw warmer nights and higher minimum temperatures the seventh highest on record since 1901.
Despite the countrywide forecast suggesting above-normal rainfall for July projected at 106% of the long-term average the outlook for the eastern and northeastern region remains grim. IMD expects dry conditions to persist, warning that areas like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and parts of western India could also face similar deficits.
Meanwhile, the heavy rainfall in central and western India has triggered warnings for potential flooding. Rivers like the Mahanadi, Godavari, and Krishna, along with several Himalayan streams, are being closely monitored for rising water levels that could threaten towns and cities downstream.
This growing disparity in rainfall not only challenges the traditional understanding of India’s monsoon but also raises serious concerns about water security, agriculture, and climate resilience. As weather patterns shift in unexpected ways, states accustomed to abundance are facing drought-like situations, while historically dry regions are adjusting to unprecedented deluges. The monsoon, once predictable in its rhythm, is now a puzzle the country must urgently learn to solve.