China ambitious hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the upper stream of India Brahmaputra River, has raised alarm bells in New Delhi, with strategic, environmental, and geopolitical implications mounting amid worsening bilateral ties.
The $167-billion mega dam slated to be the world largest has entered its construction phase in Tibet’s Medog County close to the Arunachal Pradesh border. Once completed, the dam is expected to surpass the output of China’s iconic Three Gorges Dam and is part of Beijing long-term plan to harness the vast energy potential of the Himalayas.
While China claims the project will bolster clean energy capacity and help achieve its carbon neutrality goals, Indian experts and officials are worried about its downstream impact. Concerns include potential disruption to the Brahmaputra’s water flow, risks of water diversion, ecological degradation, and the possibility of “water weaponization” in the event of future hostilities.
“Any unilateral action on transboundary rivers by China raises serious concerns for India, especially when it involves the Brahmaputra, which is vital to the water and agriculture needs of northeastern states,” a senior official in India’s Ministry of External Affairs told Business Standard, requesting anonymity.
The Yarlung Tsangpo originates in Tibet and flows into Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang, before merging with other tributaries to form the Brahmaputra in Assam. This river system sustains millions across India and Bangladesh, making any upstream activity in Chinese territory geopolitically sensitive.
The Chinese government, meanwhile, has assured that it will “consider downstream interests” and maintain transparency. However, India remains skeptical due to the absence of a binding water-sharing treaty between the two nations. Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, India and China only have a limited hydrological data-sharing agreement, which has often been suspended during periods of tension.
Environmentalists, too have voiced concerns. The location of the dam near the Great Bend where the river takes a sharp U-turn into India makes it particularly vulnerable to seismic activity, raising fears of flash floods and landslides that could affect both nations. The project also threatens a delicate ecosystem known for its biodiversity and indigenous communities.
Beijing defends the dam as essential for clean energy development claiming it will help reduce carbon emissions while supplying power to densely populated provinces. However, analysts argue that the scale and secrecy of the project signal broader geopolitical ambitions, including the possibility of using water as a strategic asset in future conflicts.
With rising sea levels, erratic monsoons and increased glacial melt already affecting South Asia, India is watching China’s Himalayan hydropower moves with growing unease. Strategic experts have urged the Indian government to invest in diplomatic channels, regional cooperation mechanisms, and robust disaster preparedness to counter the potential fallout.
As the world grapples with climate change, transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra are fast becoming flashpoints not just of ecological fragility but also of power politics making water not just a life source, but a possible trigger for future confrontations.