Maharashtra is likely to witness below-normal rainfall in August, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects a potential rebound in September, offering relief to farmers and water resource managers relying on the monsoon.
According to the IMD latest rainfall outlook for August-September 2025, the state could see a significant shortfall in August, particularly in districts like Pune. However, above-normal rainfall is expected in September, based on colour-coded probability forecasts released by IMD Pune.
“While August may remain dry with only scattered heavy showers, several areas could experience good spells in isolated pockets,” said O P Shreejit, senior IMD scientist in Pune. He noted that September is likely to make up for the earlier deficit.
Nationally the IMD predicts above-normal rainfall for the country as a whole, although regional variations will persist. Some regions including parts of northeast India central India, eastern states, and the southwestern peninsula are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
The monsoon pattern is being influenced by neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions over the Pacific, which are expected to continue through the season. Additionally, a shift toward a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) by September could improve rainfall distribution.
Meanwhile July 2025 recorded the lowest number of extremely heavy rainfall events in five years, signaling a decline in severe monsoon activity. The IMD registered 624 very heavy rainfall events this July, far fewer than in 2023 and 2024. Despite this, widespread heavy rains were still observed across the west coast including Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Kerala and parts of central and northern India.
The evolving climate signals suggest a cautious yet hopeful monsoon recovery, particularly for Maharashtra where rain-fed agriculture remains vital to livelihoods.