The Indus Basin lifeline for millions across north India and Union Territories such as Jammu and Kashmir Ladakh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, is showing alarming signs of stress under climate change a new study has revealed.
Researchers found contrasting trends across the basin: while the western part is witnessing higher river discharge from increased glacial melt and precipitation, the eastern section is becoming wetter due to intensified monsoons and shifting rainfall patterns.
The study examined river discharge across High Mountain Asia (HMA) often called Asia’s “water tower” which feeds major rivers including the Yangtze, Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Mekong, and Irrawaddy. Using computer models and satellite data covering over 114,000 river reaches between 2004 and 2019, the scientists traced how flows have changed and what it means for water security.
In the west, glaciers are playing a dominant role. The authors found that glaciers in western HMA contribute over 40 per cent of runoff in the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Indus basins. But with glacier mass projected to shrink between 29 and 67 per cent by 2100, the region may initially see excess meltwater until around 2050, before entering long-term decline. This could trigger cascading impacts on river regimes, sediment flow, ecosystems, and downstream communities.
In the east, however, monsoons are the main driver. Increased precipitation is boosting river discharge in the eastern Indus, Yangtze, and Yellow River basins. If current rainfall trends continue, these systems are expected to maintain higher flows even as glaciers retreat.
The study also warned of infrastructure risks: around 8 per cent of HMA river reaches with dams or hydropower plants are already showing significant increases in stream power, threatening stability and planning.
“The rivers of High Mountain Asia are facing the impacts of a shifting climate,” the authors wrote, noting that these changes represent not just local water challenges but also large-scale shifts in Asia’s critical river systems that sustain billions of people.