NEW DELHI – Following a record-breaking August for rainfall, India is bracing for an “above-normal” September, the final month of the monsoon season. In a press briefing on Sunday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced that September rainfall is expected to be 9% more than the usual average of 16.7 cm.
Mohapatra also revealed a concerning trend while traditional cloudbursts defined as 10 cm of rain per hour show no increasing trend, instances of “mini-cloudbursts,” or 5 cm of rain per hour, are on the rise. He explained that these smaller, high-intensity events, though difficult to forecast, can still trigger deadly landslides, particularly in hilly regions.
Record-Breaking Monsoon Continues
The forecast for September continues a pattern of an extremely active monsoon season. From June 1 to August 31, India received 6% more rain than normal. The hardest-hit region was Northwest India, which saw a staggering 26% more rainfall than its typical three-month average.
The IMD attributed this intense activity to a “confluence of disturbances,” including several storms from the Bay of Bengal moving north and interacting with western disturbances from the Mediterranean. This combination has led to multiple episodes of intense rainfall, causing widespread destruction in states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu.
The Challenge of Forecasting
Despite advancements in technology, the highly localized and short-lived nature of cloudbursts makes them “impossible” to forecast with precision, according to the IMD chief. He noted that even with satellite imagery, the department can only warn of intense clouding a few hours in advance, not predict whether it will result in a cloudburst. The lack of meteorological stations in remote, mountainous areas also makes it difficult to verify these events in real-time.
Mohapatra’s warning underscores the need for continued vigilance and preparedness as the country enters the final stretch of the monsoon. The increasing trend of September rainfall, which has been observed since 1980, suggests a shift in monsoon dynamics, making the end of the season as critical as its beginning.