WASHINGTON – As wildfires increasingly encroach on urban areas, a new report highlights a critical gap in traditional wildfire risk modeling. For decades, these models have focused on how fire spreads through natural vegetation like forests and grasslands. However, recent urban fire disasters in Lahaina, Hawaii, and Los Angeles have exposed a need for next-generation models that can accurately predict how fires spread from home to home.
Wildfire models primarily reflect fire behavior in natural settings and do not yet fully account for the complex factors of the built environment. According to a report from Headwaters Economics, in partnership with Pyrologix and the U.S. Fire Administration, the intense heat, embers, and debris from burning structures and vehicles are driven by local factors that are not adequately captured in most existing models. The challenge lies in integrating details about building materials, housing density, and neighborhood layouts into these predictive tools.
Despite their current limitations, the report notes that existing models have accurately identified many communities that have recently experienced urban wildfire disasters, proving they are still an essential tool for recognizing high-risk areas. When combined with local knowledge, they can help target prevention and resource allocation efforts effectively.
To advance the field, experts interviewed for the report identified several key needs:
• Cross-discipline and cross-agency coordination: A central body is needed to lead model development and funding, ensuring collaboration among all groups involved in wildfire response.
• Improved datasets: Researchers require better data on building and parcel-level details, the movement of embers, and the impact of mitigation activities.
• Enhanced transparency and validation: Models must be refined and validated against a wider range of scenarios, with open collaboration among researchers.
• Clarified language and standards: The models need to be tailored to the specific needs of different users, such as fire suppression versus long-term planning.
• Actionable insights: Improved models must provide clear pathways for behavioral changes, such as home hardening and creating defensible space.
The report also raises concerns about proprietary data held by insurance companies. These models are not accessible to researchers, policymakers, or the public, which hinders the development of open-source risk maps and effective public policy. The report argues that open collaboration and publicly accessible data are critical to shifting from a reactive approach to wildfire disasters to one that proactively protects lives and property.