An international team of researchers has used artificial intelligence (AI) to reveal a staggering number of previously undetected earthquakes in Italy’s Campi Flegrei volcanic field, an active caldera home to over 500,000 people. The new data shows there were four times as many earthquakes in the area than had been previously recorded, providing a clearer picture of the region’s seismic risk.
A Clearer View of Seismic Activity
The study, a collaboration between Stanford University and Italian research institutions, developed a machine-learning model to analyze seismic data from January 2022 to March 2025. While existing tools had tracked around 12,000 earthquakes during this period, the AI model identified over 54,000, enabling researchers to pinpoint their precise locations and magnitudes.
According to co-author Greg Beroza, a geophysics professor at Stanford, the main short-term concern for Campi Flegrei is not an eruption but a “moderate earthquake at shallow depth.” The more accurate data helps scientists determine the potential range of future earthquake magnitudes, which is crucial for city planners and public safety.
Hidden Faults and a “Magnitude 5” Warning
The new data uncovered two previously hidden faults converging under the town of Pozzuoli, a discovery that provides the first clear view of the geological structures responsible for the seismic activity. According to Bill Ellsworth, a co-director at Stanford’s Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity, these long faults suggest that a magnitude 5 earthquake is “not out of the question.”
The AI model also provided a clearer picture of the ring fault system on the edge of the caldera, which was formed by two major volcanic eruptions 39,000 and 15,000 years ago. The discovery of this well-marked fault surprised Italian colleagues, who had not previously seen such a clear structure.
Researchers are hopeful that this AI model can be used in other earthquake-prone regions, such as Santorini, Greece, to help officials execute earlier evacuations and potentially save lives. The Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology is already using the tool, signaling a major step forward in operational seismic monitoring.