NEW DELHI — The withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon is set for a delay this year, with a new low-pressure system forming over the Bay of Bengal expected to keep rainfall active across parts of India well into the first week of October.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that conditions for the further retreat of the monsoon may only become favourable around October 9. This delay is linked to the fresh system, which is predicted to intensify into a depression and cross the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coast.
IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra confirmed, “Rainfall activity will continue over northeast and central parts of the country till around Oct 9-10 because of the low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.”
Heavy Rain Forecast Across East and Centre
The combined effect of the low-pressure system and an incoming Western Disturbance will bring significant rain to various regions:
• Eastern and Northeastern States: Widespread rainfall is expected, extending up to Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh by October 4 and 5.
• River Catchment Alert: Mohapatra cautioned that continuous rainfall between October 3 and 6 over Bihar, Nepal, and East UP may increase water flow in river catchment areas, necessitating precautionary measures.
• Northwest India: An active Western Disturbance arriving around October 5 will bring rainfall and thunderstorm activity to both the plains and hilly regions of Northwest India.
• States with Announced Withdrawal: Even regions where the monsoon has formally withdrawn including Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi are in for a fresh spell of rain and thunderstorm activity, according to GP Sharma, President of Skymet Weather.
Maharashtra Withdrawal Pushed Back
The monsoon is also likely to overstay in Maharashtra. Withdrawal from the state, which typically begins around October 5, is now expected to be pushed back.
Skymet Weather projects that the withdrawal process for cities like Mumbai and Pune, which have normal withdrawal dates of October 8 and 9, respectively, may not complete until around October 12, overshooting the revised dates.
Currently the monsoon has officially withdrawn from the Western Himalayan Region, entire Rajasthan, parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and sections of Northwest India. However, IMD will only update the withdrawal schedule for the remaining parts of the country after the first week of October.