Launched in 2007 Africa Great Green Wall was envisioned as a massive 6,000-kilometre band of trees stretching across the Sahel from Senegal in the west to Djibouti and Ethiopia in the east. The African Union goal was to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land, halt the Sahara southward spread and help tackle poverty and climate change. But nearly two decades later, progress remains thin on the ground.
Senegal, one of the most active participants, set a target of restoring over 817,000 hectares. Yet a new study by environmental researchers Annah Lake Zhu and Amadou Ndiaye found that out of 36 areas studied via satellite, only one showed significant greening beyond what would have occurred naturally. The project, originally imagined as a literal wall of trees, now functions as a “mosaic” of scattered restoration sites but even that mosaic is patchy at best.
Over US$20 billion has been pledged to fund the Great Green Wall through various global summits, including US$4 billion at the 2015 Paris climate conference and US$14.3 billion at the 2021 One Planet Summit. But very little has reached the ground. Between 2011 and 2019, participating nations reported receiving only US$149 million, and by early 2023, just US$2.5 billion of the 2021 pledge had been disbursed.
Experts say bureaucracy and slow financial systems are to blame. Funds pass through multiple international and national agencies, delaying transfers and reducing what reaches local projects. Some countries lack agencies to directly manage the funds, while others reallocate budgets to sectors like health or infrastructure. Security instability in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has further hampered on-the-ground implementation.
Despite the setbacks, the project has generated local benefits short-term jobs in nurseries, tree planting, and site guarding, along with the harvesting of non-timber forest products like gum Arabic and desert dates. But these gains are temporary, and the ecological impact remains minimal. Many planted trees die during dry seasons, are trampled by livestock, or fail to grow due to poor maintenance and lack of irrigation.
Satellite analysis of Senegal plots revealed that only two areas have become significantly greener, and just one exceeded natural growth expectations. The Great Green Wall’s monitoring currently relies on reported activities the number of trees planted or land earmarked for regeneration rather than actual ecological outcomes.
Researchers argue that success must be measured through visible results, not symbolic figures. They recommend using new remote sensing technologies and satellite monitoring to assess real progress in greening and soil restoration.
After years of lofty promises and unmet pledges, experts warn that money alone cannot save the Great Green Wall. What needed is an efficient mechanism to deliver funds directly to local communities, transparent monitoring of ecological outcomes, and a commitment to move beyond counting trees toward measuring real, visible change across Africa drylands.