A new international report by scientists collaborating across continents provides stark evidence that human-caused climate change is making the world wildfires more extreme, unpredictable, and devastating.
The analysis found that climate change has increased the area burned by wildfires (known as bushfires in Australia) by a magnitude of 30 times in some regions globally, serving as a clear warning about the urgent need to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Global and Regional Impacts
In the past year, an estimated 3.7 million square kilometres a land area larger than India was burned globally. The fires affected over 100 million people, placing US$215 billion worth of homes and infrastructure at risk.
The study used satellite observations and advanced modelling, noting that the heating climate not only creates more dangerous, fire-prone conditions but also affects how vegetation grows and dries out, generating more fuel.
In the United States, the deadly Los Angeles wildfires in January were twice as likely and burned an area 25 times bigger than they would have in a world without global warming. Unusually wet weather in the preceding 30 months had contributed to strong vegetation growth, which then fueled the fires during an unusually hot, dry January.
In South America, fires in the Pantanal-Chiquitano region, which straddles the border between Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay, were 35 times larger due to climate change. Record-breaking fires also ravaged parts of the Amazon and Congo, releasing billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide.
In Australia, while bushfires didn’t reach the overall extent of previous seasons, over 1,000 large fires burned around 470,000 hectares in Western Australia, and over 5 million hectares burned in central Australia. Two-thirds of Victoria Grampians National Park was consumed by fire.
Fires Fuel the Climate Crisis
The new data revealed a deeply concerning cycle between wildfires and global warming.
Fires emitted more than 8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2024-25, an amount about 10\% above the average since 2003. This excess of greenhouse gas pollution alone exceeded the national fossil fuel CO2 emissions of more than 200 individual countries in 2024. Emissions were particularly acute in South American dry forests and wetlands (more than triple the global average) and Canadian boreal forests (double the average).
Urgent Action Needed at COP30
Scientists warn that if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, more severe heatwaves and droughts will inevitably make landscape fires more frequent and intense worldwide.
The report serves as a call to action for the upcoming United Nations annual climate summit (COP30) in Belem, Brazil, next month. The most powerful step developed nations can take to avoid the worst impacts of extreme wildfires, the report concludes, is to commit to rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions this decade.
Beyond emission cuts, the report recommends better regional fire responses, including prioritizing local and First Nations knowledge in bushfire management and developing nuanced forest management and disaster recovery strategies.