A groundbreaking study published in Nature Communications reveals that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major driver of global climate variability, could undergo a dramatic transformation as the planet continues to warm. Scientists from South Korea, the USA, Germany, and Ireland warn that ENSO may intensify sharply and synchronize with other global climate systems by the end of the century, reshaping global temperature and rainfall patterns.
Using advanced high-resolution climate models, researchers found that within the next 30 to 40 years, ENSO could shift from its current irregular El Niño and La Niña cycles to a more stable, rhythmic pattern marked by stronger sea surface temperature swings. “In a warmer world, the tropical Pacific can reach a tipping point, switching from stable to unstable oscillatory behavior,” explained Professor Malte F. Stuecker from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, the study’s lead author.
The simulations also indicate that a more regular ENSO could synchronize with other major climate systems such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Tropical North Atlantic mode. This global alignment, the researchers say, could intensify rainfall variability in regions like Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula, causing rapid shifts between extreme wet and dry periods a phenomenon known as hydroclimate “whiplash.”
Professor Axel Timmermann, Director of the IBS Center for Climate Physics in South Korea and corresponding author of the study, noted that while a more predictable ENSO could improve seasonal forecasts, the heightened intensity will increase global risks. “The amplified impacts will necessitate stronger planning and adaptation strategies,” he said.
The team used the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model, which provides high-resolution simulations of atmospheric and oceanic behavior, to test climate responses under high-emission scenarios. Their findings align with several other global models, strengthening the evidence that ENSO’s future may be more predictable but also more disruptive.
The study underscores how human-induced warming is reshaping natural climate rhythms that have influenced weather for millennia. Researchers warn that this evolution could have far-reaching impacts on agriculture, water security, and ecosystems worldwide. “Our findings highlight the urgency of global preparedness to manage intensified climate variability and its cascading effects,” said Timmermann.
Future research will continue exploring how global synchronization among climate systems develops under extreme warming scenarios, using even higher-resolution models running on South Korea’s Aleph supercomputer.