India’s carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise by just 1.4 per cent in 2025, marking a slowdown compared to the higher growth rates of previous years. According to the Global Carbon Budget 2025 report, this deceleration can be attributed to an early onset of the monsoon season and the country’s rapid expansion in renewable energy capacity, which has nearly stabilized coal consumption.
Released during the COP30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, the report prepared by a network of over 130 climate scientists and research institutions places India among the world’s top emitters, alongside China, the United States, and the European Union. Despite the slower pace of increase, India’s emissions remain on an upward trend, underlining the complex balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability.
The report also noted contrasting emission patterns across major economies. While the United States and the European Union are expected to record declines in carbon emissions, China’s emissions are projected to grow by about 3 per cent in 2025 due to increased industrial output and energy demand.
Experts warn that as natural carbon sinks such as forests and oceans lose their capacity to absorb CO2, the world’s ability to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius becomes increasingly uncertain.
India’s efforts to expand its renewable energy portfolio including solar, wind, and hydro power have shown promising results, helping offset some of the emissions from fossil fuel use. With renewable capacity now exceeding 190 gigawatts, the country continues to move closer to its goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2070.
However, analysts emphasize that sustained policy action, investment in clean technology, and improved energy efficiency will be crucial for India to maintain this downward trend in emissions growth while ensuring economic resilience and equitable energy access for all.