A global move towards the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission diet by 2050 could help slow rising food prices, but may also deepen nutrient deficiencies in low-income regions unless backed by strong nutrition programmes, a new study has warned.
Researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partner institutions modelled how adopting this largely plant-based diet centred on whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes, with modest fish and dairy and limited meat would affect calorie supply, nutrient intake, food budgets and commodity prices worldwide.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health found that global calorie availability would drop by 22 per cent under the EAT-Lancet diet compared with a business-as-usual scenario. By 2050, the average supply would fall to 2,376 kcal per person per day, close to the commission’s recommended level of 2,400 kcal but well below the projected 3,050 kcal if current consumption patterns continue.
While the original EAT-Lancet report suggested that a healthier, planet-friendly diet could cut agricultural methane emissions by 15 per cent by mid-century, the new analysis highlights the serious risks such a shift could pose to vulnerable populations.
Even when calorie needs are met, micronutrient gaps could widen. The modelling showed potential improvements in nutrients such as folate, iron and zinc, but a decline in vitamin A availability driven by reduced consumption of animal-source foods and tuber crops. Researchers warned that populations in low-income countries already face widespread vitamin A deficiency, making this trend especially concerning.
Affordability remains another major barrier. In 2020, households in low-income countries spent 42 per cent of their income on food, compared with 21 per cent in high-income countries. By 2050, this share is projected to drop to 25 per cent for low-income nations and 9 per cent for wealthier ones. The gap narrows slightly under the EAT-Lancet scenario, but food still takes up a disproportionately large share of family budgets in poorer regions, limiting their ability to shift toward costlier fruits, vegetables and animal-sourced foods required by the recommended diet.
Lead author Abhijeet Mishra said the findings underline the mixed nutritional impacts such a diet transition may bring. Regions like South Asia and Eastern Africa could see food spending rise because the diet requires higher consumption of items that remain relatively expensive and are historically under-consumed.
The study concludes that without targeted interventions such as public provisioning of fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds the dietary transition could unintentionally widen both affordability and nutrient gaps.
Mishra stressed that any global dietary shift must be locally designed and context-specific. Without this, he warned, well-intentioned sustainable diet policies could leave behind the very communities most vulnerable to malnutrition.