The Amazon rainforest is approaching a critical tipping point, with escalating deforestation, wildfires, climate extremes and criminal activity putting the world’s largest rainforest at risk of irreversible collapse. The Amazon Assessment Report 2025 Connectivity of the Amazon for a Living Planet warns that without urgent intervention, the region’s ecological and social systems could break down.
Forest loss and climate extremes pushing ecosystem to the brink
Scientists say nearly a quarter of lowland forests, rivers and wetlands have already been affected by droughts, heatwaves and land degradation. The Amazon generates up to half of the world’s rainfall and holds nearly 20 per cent of global river freshwater, while storing carbon equivalent to 15–20 years of global emissions. Its destabilisation would have worldwide consequences.
Human pressures intensifying threats
Between 1985 and 2023, the region lost 12.4 per cent of its forest cover, largely due to commercial agriculture, ranching, logging, mining and infrastructure development. An additional 38 per cent is classified as degraded. Illegal timber extraction, land grabbing and gold mining often linked with organised criminal networks are spreading rapidly, exploiting weak governance.
Climate impacts worsening droughts, fires and river decline
The Amazon River has experienced four major droughts and two extreme floods in recent decades, each more severe than the last. Extreme fire weather days have tripled since 1971, and by 2050 the area burned could double. Brazil saw its worst forest fires in 2024, driven by prolonged heat and delayed rainfall.
Smoke from these fires is altering cloud formation and deepening drought, contributing to nearly 16,800 deaths annually. River fragmentation has also increased due to dam construction, with severe declines in floodplain forests and rising tree mortality.
Health and community risks rising
Remote communities are facing increasing isolation during droughts, as water levels in central Amazon lakes have dropped by up to 80 per cent. Expanding roads and mining routes have also created conditions for malaria, dengue and greater exposure to wildfire smoke. Researchers warn that human–wildlife contact along these routes is raising the risk of zoonotic diseases.
Scientists call for integrated protection strategy
The report concludes that the Amazon can only be saved through a holistic strategy linking climate science, ecology, indigenous rights, governance and regional cooperation. Without coordinated action, the Amazon could cross a threshold beyond which the rainforest cannot recover.