Rio de Janeiro, Brazil—New data released by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) at the annual COP30 climate conference reveals a dramatic slowdown in India’s fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide CO2 emissions growth for 2025. The annual Global Carbon Budget study projects that India’s emissions will increase by just 1.4% this year, a sharp decline from the 4% growth recorded in 2024.
This relatively modest jump will see India’s fossil fuel emissions rise from 3.19 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024 to an estimated 3.22 billion tonnes in 2025. This projected growth rate is notably lower than the 1.9% increase expected for the United States.
Weather and Renewables Drive Down Coal Use
The significant deceleration is attributed to a combination of favorable climatic conditions and India’s growing clean energy sector. According to the study’s accompanying statement, “An early monsoon reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months (in India).” This lower energy demand, combined with “strong growth in renewables,” resulted in very low growth in coal consumption.
This finding echoes an earlier analysis for Carbon Brief, which indicated that CO2 emissions from India’s electricity sector actually showed a decline in the first half of this year compared to the previous year, primarily due to reduced demand for cooling and irrigation powered by the grid.
Decadal Trend Shows Slower Rise
Beyond the current year forecast, the GCP study highlights a positive long-term trend in India’s emission trajectory. The average annual growth of India’s emissions in the current decade (2015–2024) has slowed to 3.6%, down significantly from the 6.4% registered in the 2005–2014 period. This slowing growth rate, even amid a continuously expanding economy, suggests ongoing improvements in the carbon intensity of the country’s economic activity.
Fossil fuels including those used in electricity generation, transportation, and industrial processes account for about 90% of global CO2 emissions.
Global Emissions Still Hit Record High
Despite India’s slowed growth, the overall global picture remains concerning. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise globally by about 1.1% this year, reaching a new record of 38.1 billion tonnes. The study underscores that years of climate action have not yet been sufficient to force a definitive decline in global emissions, though overall CO2 emissions are expected to remain relatively flat (around 42 billion tonnes) this year due to an anticipated decline in land-use change emissions.