A new report from the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) identifies India as one of five Asia-Pacific countries where the agriculture sector faces a consistently “high risk” from rising temperatures. The 2025 Asia-Pacific Disaster Report warns that the impacts including reduced crop yields, lower livestock productivity, declining labor capacity, and deepening rural poverty remain high under both low- and high-emissions climate scenarios.
India joins Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh in this high-risk category, underscoring the severe threat to the South Asian region.
The Looming Threat to Food Systems
Agriculture is central to the region’s food security and employment, contributing more than a quarter of the region GDP and employing the majority of the rural labor force. However, the report warns that extreme heat is already pushing crops and livestock to “severe stress.”
• Crop Failure Example: The report cites the 2022 unprecedented March heatwaves in India, which caused the staple wheat crop to wither during its critical late growth stage, illustrating the immediate economic vulnerability.
• Vulnerability Metric: To assess this risk, ESCAP developed an Agricultural Heat Stress Score (AHSS). This metric combines the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), which measures consecutive hot days, with the region’s economic reliance on agriculture, the extent of agricultural employment, and the proportion of land under cultivation.
Under the unmitigated high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), the report suggests that countries like Myanmar, Fiji, Laos, and Uzbekistan, which rely heavily on agriculture but have limited adaptive infrastructure, are projected to experience worsening vulnerability.
Farm Workers on the Frontlines
The report stresses that farmworkers are the most vulnerable, facing severe health risks and economic losses. Analysis of global studies revealed that farmworkers experience significantly higher rates of heat stress, dehydration, and heat-related illness, often compounded by limited access to shade, drinking water, and rest.
Productivity Loss Sustained exposure to high heat can reduce labor productivity by up to 27 per cent, directly cutting individual incomes and weakening the overall resilience of the food system. Many cases of heat-related illness among informal laborers go unrecognized or untreated.
ESCAP emphasizes an urgent need to ensure food security by mainstreaming heat resilience in agriculture. This requires integrating more granular climate risk information into decision-making for early warning systems, cross-sectoral planning, and public investment in adaptation infrastructure.