Coastal regions, where dense clusters of essential infrastructure are located, are facing the sharpest impacts of climate change. The threats range from paralysed transportation systems to disrupted global supply chains. To prepare effectively, a clearer picture of these vulnerabilities is needed so that governments and businesses can anticipate problems before they hit. But today, fragmented data, uneven assessment methods and the lack of a shared framework make it difficult to fully understand the scale of risk.
In late October, the Caribbean was hit by Hurricane Melissa, a storm that scientists say is four times more likely because of climate change, according to research by Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute. With a reported death toll of more than forty and initial damage estimates of around fifty billion dollars, the disaster has highlighted the extreme exposure of coastal regions to climate threats.
Some forty percent of the global population lives within one hundred kilometres of the coast, and eleven percent live in areas less than ten metres above sea level. Coastal zones attract major cities, ports, industries and transport hubs, along with tourism and fisheries. These advantages, however, now place valuable assets directly in the path of rising sea levels and more powerful storms.
The growing economic cost of climate disasters shows how quickly the situation is escalating. Hurricane Katrina submerged most of New Orleans in two thousand and five, killing more than eighteen hundred people and causing one hundred and twenty five billion dollars in damage. Cyclone Idai hit Mozambique fourteen years later, killing twelve hundred people, causing two billion dollars in losses and cutting off access to one of the country’s most important ports. In two thousand and twenty one, record rainfall led to catastrophic flooding in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, washing out roads, damaging farms, breaking water systems and stopping transport for weeks.
These disasters do not only destroy infrastructure. They also break essential services, delay reconstruction and trigger a chain of failures across sectors. A flooded coastal highway or a damaged power line can affect ports, factories, storage facilities and international trade. If action is not taken, global damages from coastal flooding could increase one hundred and fifty times by the year twenty eighty.
Experts say a consistent, transparent framework is urgently needed to measure how fragile coastal infrastructure has become. One method gaining traction is to evaluate exposure using financial impact, including likely repair costs and business interruptions. The Scientific Climate Ratings agency uses this approach to analyse risks at the asset level. Developed with the EDHEC Climate Institute, the system provides a standardised reference for measuring and comparing climate exposure.
This method supports a grading system known as the Climate Exposure Rating, which ranges from A to G. Lower grades mean higher risk. The results show that coastal infrastructure has more F and G ratings, and fewer A and B ratings, than inland infrastructure. This confirms that coastal assets face greater risk and need targeted adaptation plans.
Researchers calculate physical risk by looking at both the probability and intensity of extreme events, then linking them to potential financial losses. For example, a one hundred year flood, meaning a one percent annual chance, might bring two metres of water, enough to destroy more than half the value of a residential building in Europe.
These tools help governments and businesses decide where to build, reinforce or redesign infrastructure. They also consider transition risks, such as new regulations or falls in demand for fossil fuels, which may force some facilities to close in the near future. A gas terminal, for instance, could become a stranded asset, while investments in resilient systems may improve long term value.
One real world example is Brisbane Airport. Located between a river and the ocean, the airport faced severe flooding risk. By raising runways and building flood barriers, it reduced its exposure to one hundred year floods by eighty percent. Its overall rating improved by two categories, making it more secure and more attractive for investors.
The Brisbane case shows that climate adaptation in coastal zones is possible and financially beneficial. This approach can be repeated across other vulnerable regions, provided that decisions are based on clear, comparable and trusted risk assessments. Coastal infrastructure is at a turning point in the climate era. Raising awareness of these risks, and making them visible, is the first step toward protecting critical networks, communities and economies from future disasters.