A new scientific study has revealed that China’s water cycle is undergoing major shifts, but these changes are far from uniform across the country. Researchers found a widening disparity between the eastern monsoon regions and the northern and western parts of China, raising fresh concerns about long-term water security for millions of people.
According to the findings, the eastern monsoon region has experienced a decline in water availability, largely driven by an increase in evapotranspiration. In simple terms, more water is evaporating from land and vegetation than before, leaving less available for human use. In contrast, the Tibetan Plateau recorded a modest rise in precipitation. However, scientists emphasise that this additional rainfall is too small to balance the significant water loss occurring in other regions.
This imbalance poses serious challenges for northern China, which already struggles with chronic water scarcity. The north is home to 46 percent of the country’s population and supports 60 percent of its arable land, making it vital for food production and economic activity. The study suggests that the ongoing shifts in the water cycle have placed a disproportionate burden on this region, where resources are already stretched thin.
The research also raises concerns about the unintended impact of China’s large-scale re-greening projects. While these efforts aim to tackle desertification and improve environmental health, they may place additional pressure on water supplies if regional water redistribution patterns are not properly considered. As researcher Staal explained, “Even though the water cycle is more active, at local scales more water is lost than before.” Experts warn that this increased local water loss could intensify the already critical shortages facing the north.
Overall, the study’s findings underline the urgency of developing tailored water-management strategies that reflect China’s diverse climate zones. Without such adjustments, the growing imbalance in the country’s water cycle may deepen existing regional vulnerabilities and threaten long-term sustainability.