Global plastic pollution is accelerating at a pace that far exceeds the world’s ability to manage it, with a new assessment warning that the amount of plastic entering land, air and water will more than double over the next fifteen years. The report, produced by the Pew Charitable Trusts with support from ICF International and leading research partners such as the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Imperial College London, Systemiq and the University of Oxford, paints a stark picture of rising waste, health risks and economic burdens.
According to the analysis, Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025 – An Assessment of the Global System and Strategies for Transformative Change an estimated 130 million tonnes of plastic are already polluting the environment every year. Without urgent global action, that figure is projected to climb to 280 million tonnes by 2040 the equivalent of dumping a full garbage truck of plastic waste into the environment every second.
The report identifies surging production and consumption, especially in packaging and textiles, as the main forces driving this increase. Microplastics alone account for 13 per cent of global pollution in 2025, with tyre wear and paint each contributing 10 million tonnes, followed by agriculture and recycling-related leakage.
Beyond environmental damage, the assessment also warns of a steep rise in greenhouse gas emissions linked to plastic production and disposal. Plastic-related emissions are projected to grow by 58 per cent, reaching 4.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually by 2040 similar to emissions from one billion petrol-powered cars. Researchers note that the continued dependence on fossil fuels as the primary feedstock for plastic remains a major obstacle to climate goals.
The report finds that plastic production is set to grow 52 per cent between 2025 and 2040, from 450 million tonnes to 680 million tonnes. Waste management systems, even with significant investment, will not keep pace; they are expected to expand by only 26 per cent. As a result, the share of uncollected plastic waste could rise from 19 per cent to 34 per cent. This gap will also increase financial strain on governments, with annual waste management costs projected to climb by 30 per cent to 140 billion US dollars by 2040.
Health impacts are expected to rise sharply as well. The report highlights a 75 per cent increase in modelled health risks linked to plastics, including cancers, respiratory illness, hormonal disruption, reduced fertility and developmental disorders. More than a quarter of the over 16,000 chemicals used in plastic products have already been identified as potential threats to human health. The assessment estimates that the global population will lose 5.6 million years of healthy life in 2025, rising to 9.8 million years by 2040.
Yet the report also outlines a path for meaningful change. A “System Transformation” scenario, which combines ambitious and coordinated actions across the entire plastic value chain, could reduce annual pollution by up to 83 per cent by 2040. Recommended strategies include reducing overall plastic production and use, redesigning products and materials for safety and reuse, expanding inclusive waste management systems, and improving transparency across supply chains.
The authors emphasise that such transformation would not only protect ecosystems and public health but also create more secure jobs and foster innovation in sustainable materials and business models. However, these benefits depend on swift, coordinated action by governments, industries and researchers.
The report urges policymakers to adopt strong regulations that limit plastic production, mandate safer chemicals and address major sources of microplastic pollution. Without immediate intervention, it warns, the world will face escalating environmental, economic and human health consequences.