China is facing a deepening imbalance in its water cycle, with new research warning that the changes unfolding across the country are far from uniform. While some regions are seeing slight gains in rainfall, others are experiencing significant water loss intensifying long-standing regional disparities.
According to the study, the eastern monsoon belt has recorded a decline in water availability, driven mainly by rising evapotranspiration. More water is evaporating from soil, forests and croplands, leaving less available for human use. In contrast, the Tibetan Plateau often called Asia’s water tower has seen a modest increase in precipitation. But researchers caution that the additional rainfall is far too small to make up for the water being lost elsewhere.
The growing imbalance is particularly worrying for northern China, a region already battling chronic water shortages. The north accounts for 46 per cent of the population and nearly 60 per cent of the country’s arable land, making it essential for agriculture and national food security. The study warns that the shifts in the water cycle have “disproportionately affected” these northern provinces, where freshwater availability was already stretched thin.
China has been carrying out massive re-greening and afforestation programmes for years, aimed at reducing desertification and improving ecological health. But scientists say that if water redistribution patterns are not considered carefully, such projects may put additional pressure on already fragile water systems.
As lead researcher Staal noted, “Even though the water cycle is more active, at local scales more water is lost than before.” Experts fear this trend could intensify the water crisis in the north, which is struggling to meet both agricultural and urban demand.
The findings add urgency to ongoing discussions about China’s long-term water security. Policymakers have already invested heavily in large-scale diversion projects, including the South-to-North Water Transfer. But researchers say the new data highlights the need for more region-specific planning to ensure that ecological restoration, climate adaptation and water management work together rather than against each other.
With climate change accelerating shifts in rainfall, drought frequency and evaporation rates, experts warn that China must re-evaluate how it uses, stores and distributes freshwater. Without targeted responses, the widening water gap between regions may become even more difficult to manage in the years ahead.