One of the world’s oldest mountain systems, the Aravalli range, formed more than 2.5 billion years ago, is now facing a future where large parts of it could disappear within a single human lifetime. New scientific projections warn that if current trends continue, over 16,000 square kilometres of forest in the Aravallis could be lost to human settlements by 2059, pushing the ancient range closer to ecological collapse.
The warning comes amid growing national attention on the Aravallis, following the Supreme Court’s recent decision to put on hold its November 20 order related to the definition of the hill range. The court has taken suo motu cognisance of concerns that a revised definition could open the door to increased mining and construction in the fragile foothills, and will hear the matter again on January 21, 2026.
However, researchers stress that the danger to the Aravallis predates the present legal controversy. Long before the debate over definitions emerged, scientists had flagged a steady and accelerating degradation driven by mining, urbanisation and agricultural expansion. Together, these forces are steadily dismantling the ecological backbone of north-western India.
A detailed study by researchers from the Central University of Rajasthan offers one of the most comprehensive assessments of this decline. Using 44 years of satellite data from 1975 to 2019, combined with machine-learning-based land-change models, the team reconstructed how land use across the Aravalli range has evolved and projected what lies ahead over the next four decades. The analysis was carried out using platforms such as Google Earth Engine and the TerrSet Land Change Modeller.
The findings paint a stark picture. Between 1975 and 2019, the Aravallis lost nearly 5,773 square kilometres of forest cover, around 7.6 per cent of the total. Large tracts were converted into barren land and expanding settlements, signalling a gradual but relentless human takeover of hills and valleys once dominated by forests and scrub. During this period alone, more than 3,600 square kilometres turned barren, while close to 800 square kilometres became settlements.
According to the researchers, these changes were observed across all three segments of the range the upper, middle and lower Aravallis indicating that the degradation is widespread rather than localised. What is most concerning, however, is what the future holds.
Projections up to 2059 suggest that nearly 16,361 square kilometres of forest, roughly 21.6 per cent of the Aravalli’s existing forest area, could be directly converted into settlements if current patterns persist. While forests are also expected to give way to agriculture, mining and barren land, settlement expansion emerges as the most aggressive and dominant trend. Rapid urban growth, expanding road networks and population pressure from Delhi-NCR in the north to Udaipur and Sirohi in the south are fragmenting what was once a continuous ecological corridor.
The modelling shows forest-to-settlement and barren-to-settlement transitions as the strongest and most persistent land-use shifts. Decade-by-decade projections indicate fluctuating but overall declining forest cover, with significant ecological consequences if protective measures are not strengthened.
The implications go far beyond the hills themselves. The Aravallis play a critical role in regulating climate, recharging groundwater, stabilising soils, reducing dust storms and supporting biodiversity across Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Gujarat. Large-scale forest loss threatens these ecosystem services, increasing regional vulnerability to heat, water stress and extreme weather.
Researchers also point out that land-use change is already responsible for nearly a third of global human-induced carbon dioxide emissions. Continued degradation of the Aravallis not only adds to this global carbon burden but also weakens local resilience at a time when climate risks are intensifying.
The authors describe their work as both a warning and a planning tool. By identifying areas most vulnerable to conversion into settlements or mining zones, the study offers policymakers and planners an opportunity to intervene with stricter protections, ecological restoration and more sustainable urban development.
The message, however, is unmistakable. Without decisive action, India’s oldest mountain range risks being reduced to scattered green fragments surrounded by concrete and barren land. For the Aravallis, the critical moment is not centuries away. It is unfolding now, and the choices made in the coming decades will determine whether this ancient range survives as a living ecosystem or fades into ecological memory.