Thousands of glaciers across the world are expected to disappear every year in the coming decades, with scientists warning that the planet is approaching a period they describe as “peak glacier extinction.” A new study published in Nature Climate Change shows that unless global warming is sharply reduced, the pace of glacier loss will accelerate dramatically by the mid-21st century.
Researchers estimate that today the world loses about 1,000 glaciers annually. By the 2040s, that number could double or even quadruple, depending on how much the planet warms. The study finds that government climate action will largely determine whether the world loses around 2,000 glaciers a year or as many as 4,000 by the 2050s.
Led by glaciologist Lander Van Tricht, the research shifts focus from how much ice is melting to how many individual glaciers are disappearing altogether. Using satellite data from more than 211,000 glaciers worldwide, the scientists calculated when glacier loss would reach its highest point during this century.
Their findings paint a stark picture. Even if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels the target set under the Paris Agreement glacier disappearance would still peak around 2041, with about 2,000 glaciers vanishing each year. Under this scenario, fewer than half of the world’s glaciers would remain by 2100.
The situation worsens under current policy trajectories. If global temperatures rise by about 2.7 degrees Celsius, which aligns with existing government commitments, roughly 3,000 glaciers could disappear annually between 2040 and 2060. By the end of the century, only one in five glaciers would survive. In a worst-case scenario, where warming reaches 4 degrees Celsius, as many as 4,000 glaciers could vanish every year by the mid-2050s, leaving just 9 percent of today’s glaciers intact by 2100.
While smaller glaciers contribute less to sea-level rise than massive ice bodies, their loss can have deep local consequences. Vanishing glaciers affect tourism, water availability, ecosystems, and cultural identity in mountain regions. “The disappearance of each single glacier can have major local impacts, even if its meltwater contribution is small,” Van Tricht explained.
The emotional weight of glacier loss is already being felt. Co-author Matthias Huss recalled taking part in a symbolic funeral for the Pizol glacier in the Swiss Alps in 2019. “This is more than a scientific concern,” he said. “It really touches our hearts.”
The study also shows that glacier loss will not happen uniformly across the globe. Regions with many small glaciers, such as the European Alps and the subtropical Andes, could lose half their glaciers within the next two decades. In contrast, areas with larger ice masses, including Greenland and parts of Antarctica, will experience peak glacier loss later in the century.
Importantly, scientists caution that the eventual slowdown in glacier disappearance does not signal recovery. Instead, it reflects a grim reality: there will simply be fewer glaciers left to melt. In places like the Alps, glacier loss could fall to nearly zero by the end of the century because almost all glaciers will already be gone.
The researchers stress that the study sends a clear message to policymakers. Ambitious climate action taken now could still preserve a significant share of the world’s glaciers. Delayed or weak action, however, will lock in irreversible losses that reshape landscapes, livelihoods, and cultures for generations.
As the world approaches peak glacier extinction, the fate of these ancient ice bodies increasingly depends on decisions made in the next few years decisions that will determine whether glaciers remain symbols of resilience or become memories marked only by photographs and funerals in the mountains.