As the United Nations prepares to mark 2026 as the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists, a new scientific study has raised serious concerns about the future of Africa’s grasslands. Published in Nature Communications the research finds that nearly half of the continent’s rangelands are now being grazed beyond safe ecological limits, largely due to rapidly rising livestock numbers combined with mounting climate stress.
Pastoralism remains central to Africa’s food security, culture and rural economies, but researchers warn that the pace of livestock growth is outstripping the capacity of grasslands to recover. Of Africa’s 49 countries, 25 are already facing severe overuse of grasslands, with northern regions emerging as the most heavily affected.
Livestock Numbers Rise Faster Than Grasslands Can Recover
The study, led by researchers from Henan University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, shows that while Africa’s grasslands have become more productive over the past two decades, this increase has not kept pace with livestock expansion. By 2020, the continent had more than 529 million tropical livestock units, nearly 1.6 times the number recorded in 2001. Just 10 countries account for almost 70 per cent of this total.
Cattle, goats, sheep, donkeys, camels, horses and mules form the backbone of Africa’s pastoral economy, making grazing pressure both an economic and cultural challenge to address. According to the study, around 51 per cent of Africa grasslands concentrated largely in northern Africa are now grazed beyond their ecological carrying capacity, raising alarms over long-term sustainability and food security.
A Sharp Divide Between Overgrazed North and Underused South
The research highlights a striking regional imbalance across the continent. While grasslands in northern Africa and the Sahel are under intense pressure, large areas of pasture in Southern Africa remain significantly underused. About 27 per cent of Africa’s grasslands, mainly in the south, are classified as underutilised over the long term, with 13 countries falling into the “extremely low utilisation” category.
Central Africa also shows relatively sustainable grassland use, with countries such as the Central African Republic, Sierra Leone and Côte d’Ivoire recording particularly low grazing pressure. In contrast, regions surrounding the Sahara Desert are highly vulnerable, where even small increases in grazing can sharply reduce grassland resilience.
Parts of East Africa are facing acute stress as well. The study points to serious overexploitation in Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia. In Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, grazing pressure has been compounded by one of the driest October–December rainy seasons on record. The near-total failure of Kenya’s 2025 short rains has led to poor pasture regeneration, limited water recharge and falling livestock productivity, pushing many pastoral households into crisis.
Climate Change Multiplies Pressure on Fragile Ecosystems
To assess long-term stress on grasslands, the researchers developed a new Grassland Carrying Capacity Alert Index, which categorises rangelands from extremely low utilisation to serious overexploitation. The index functions as an early-warning system, helping identify ecosystems at risk of degradation.
While livestock growth remains the primary driver of grassland pressure, climate change is intensifying the problem. The study found sharp year-to-year swings in grassland carrying capacity during periods of extreme weather, with major declines recorded in 2002, 2015 and 2019 following droughts, floods and cyclones. Regions south of the Sahara showed the highest variability, making them especially vulnerable to climate extremes.
The researchers note that wetter conditions can temporarily ease grazing pressure, but prolonged drought rapidly worsens overgrazing, eroding the very resource base on which pastoral livelihoods depend.
Rethinking Pastoral Management for a Sustainable Future
The study concludes that Africa’s grassland crisis is not irreversible, but addressing it will require coordinated action at regional, national and local levels. Better cooperation between countries could help rebalance grazing pressure by encouraging livestock development in underused southern pastures while reducing overstocking in the north.
At the local level, strategies such as controlled and rotational grazing could help limit ecological damage, though the researchers caution against one-size-fits-all solutions. Evidence from South Africa suggests that rotational grazing does not always outperform continuous grazing, underscoring the need for region-specific approaches.
The authors also argue for a shift towards higher-value livestock products rather than simply increasing herd sizes, while recognising that reducing animal numbers directly affects pastoral incomes. In the most severely overgrazed regions, strategic use of external feed sources could ease pressure on natural grasslands and allow ecosystems time to recover.
Finally, the study calls for better data to guide policy. Current assessments rely heavily on coarse national livestock statistics, limiting effective decision-making. High-resolution, location-specific data on livestock density and grassland quality will be critical to safeguarding Africa’s rangelands and the millions of people whose lives depend on them, as the continent enters the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists in 2026.