Zambia and Zimbabwe have decided to move forward with the long-delayed Batoka Gorge Hydroelectric Scheme on the Zambezi River, brushing aside growing concerns that climate change and declining river flows could undermine the project’s viability. The two governments have jointly committed $440 million as seed capital, signalling renewed political backing for the $4.5 billion project.
The decision was taken at a December 29, 2025 meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Zambezi River Authority, the bi-national body responsible for managing water resources on the shared river. Each country will contribute $220 million, representing about 10 per cent of the total project cost. Officials say the funding is aimed at improving the project’s bankability and attracting private investors, as financing challenges have stalled the project for decades.
Declining River Flows Raise Questions Over Hydropower Reliability
The Batoka Gorge project, located downstream of Victoria Falls on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe, is designed to generate 2,400 megawatts of electricity, with each country receiving 1,200 MW. Both nations are currently facing severe electricity shortages and see the project as critical to improving energy security.
However, climate change has increasingly affected water availability in the Zambezi River basin. Erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts and higher temperatures have reduced river flows, affecting existing hydropower plants on the river. Power generation at the Kariba Dam, jointly operated by Zambia and Zimbabwe, was halted in 2022 and again in 2024 due to low water levels. Downstream, Mozambique’s Cahora Bassa dam has also experienced reduced generation.
Similar impacts have been recorded at other hydropower stations in Zambia, including Kafue Gorge, Lower Kafue Gorge and Itezhi-Tezhi. These developments have fuelled concerns that adding another large hydropower project on the Zambezi could increase financial and operational risks.
Studies Warn Climate Change Could Undermine Project Viability
Several studies have raised red flags about the Batoka Gorge scheme. Research by the University of Edinburgh found that climate change could significantly reduce river flows, power production and electricity revenues, potentially making the project less attractive to private investors. The study highlighted the paradox that while hydropower is promoted as a clean energy solution, climate change itself threatens the water resources it depends on.
Another study focusing on southern Africa warned that climate change, combined with rising demand for irrigation and economic growth, could further strain the Zambezi River. It concluded that the planned Batoka Gorge plant may fail to achieve the power output projected in its original feasibility studies, especially under a drying climate scenario.
Despite these warnings, both governments remain firm. Zimbabwe’s Energy Minister July Moyo said the financial commitment demonstrates clear political intent to proceed. Zambia’s Energy Minister Makozo Chikote defended the project, stating that comprehensive feasibility studies, including climate assessments, confirm the river can sustainably support the scheme.
Officials from the Zambezi River Authority argue that Batoka Gorge will complement existing dams and help stabilise power generation in the region. Energy experts also note that hydropower will remain central to southern Africa’s electricity mix, provided dams are managed using improved climate forecasting and regional coordination.
As climate projections suggest southern Africa will continue to become drier, critics argue that the project reflects a risky bet on a shrinking water resource. Supporters, however, insist that with careful planning and integration into regional power systems, Batoka Gorge can still play a key role in meeting the region’s growing energy demand.