Global warming is set to redraw the world energy needs, creating a widening gap between rich and poor countries, a new study has found. As temperatures rise, colder and wealthier nations are expected to see a sharp fall in heating demand, while warmer and largely developing countries will face a steep surge in the need for air conditioning.
The research published in Nature Sustainability, warns that most of these shifts will happen sooner than expected, even before the planet crosses the critical 1.5°C warming threshold.
Richer cold countries to save energy, poorer hot nations to pay more
According to the study, countries such as Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden and Norway will experience the steepest declines in heating demand as winters become milder. In contrast, nations in the Global South including India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines will bear the brunt of rising cooling needs.
These countries are home to billions of people, many of whom already struggle with unreliable electricity and limited access to cooling systems. As heat intensifies, the demand for air conditioning is expected to grow rapidly, increasing pressure on power grids and household finances.
“Our study shows most of the changes in cooling and heating demand occur before reaching the 1.5°C threshold,” said Jesus Lizana, lead author and associate professor of engineering science at the University of Oxford. “This means major adaptation measures will need to be implemented much earlier than many countries are prepared for.”
Cooling demand rising faster as world nears 1.5°C warming
By mid-century, the consequences could be severe. The study estimates that nearly 3.8 billion people almost half the global population could be living under extreme heat conditions if global temperatures rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a scenario scientists say is increasingly likely.
In India alone, cooling degree days, a measure used to estimate air-conditioning needs, are projected to increase by 13.4% as warming shifts from 1°C to 2°C. Cooling degree days track how much temperatures exceed a base level of 18.3°C, serving as a proxy for how often cooling is required.
The researchers note that cooling needs are rising faster in the current decade as the world approaches 1.5°C, with increases between 1°C and 1.5°C outpacing those expected between 1.5°C and 2°C.
Energy inequality and health risks set to grow
The economic divide created by this shift could be profound. While northern nations save on heating costs, developing countries may be forced to invest heavily in cooling infrastructure, electricity generation and grid expansion, all while facing rising energy bills.
Radhika Khosla, associate professor at Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, described the findings as a “wake-up call”.
“Overshooting 1.5°C of warming will have an unprecedented impact on education, health, migration and food systems,” she said. “Net-zero sustainable development remains the only established path to reversing the trend of ever-hotter days.”
The study also found that countries such as the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos and Brazil are already seeing some of the sharpest increases in dangerously hot temperatures. Meanwhile, colder countries will experience dramatic relative increases in hot days, with nations like the UK, Sweden and Finland expected to see hot days more than double if warming reaches 2°C.
The research used the UK Met Office’s HadAM4 climate model and included an open-source dataset featuring 30 global maps at a resolution of roughly 60 kilometres.
The findings underline a stark reality: as the planet warms, the energy burden of staying cool will fall most heavily on those least equipped to handle it.