The conservation status of the southern elephant seal in South Africa has improved from near threatened to least concern, following decades of legal protection and minimal disturbance at key breeding colonies on remote sub-Antarctic islands.
The reassessment, published in the 2025 Mammal Red List for Southern Africa, estimates that approximately 5,500 southern elephant seals now inhabit Marion Island and Prince Edward Island a sharp rise from about 3,000 individuals recorded in 2016. Nearly 1,400 pups were counted in 2023 alone, signaling sustained reproductive success.
The species, known scientifically as Mirounga leonina breeds on these two islands, which form part of South Africa’s protected marine territory in the Southern Ocean.
Four Decades of Protection Pay Off
According to the assessment, no serious threats have affected the seals’ land-based breeding colonies over the past 40 years. The islands are protected under South Africa’s Seabirds and Seals Protection Act of 1973 and lie within a designated marine protected area, providing strong legal safeguards.
The Red List update was coordinated by the Endangered Wildlife Trust and the South African National Biodiversity Institute, bringing together 163 researchers from 40 institutions. The evaluation followed criteria established by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, which oversees the global Red List.
Researchers say the improved status demonstrates that long-term habitat protection can lead to measurable recovery. “This tells us that conservation and increased protection of species habitats can result in species recovery,” said Tamanna Patel, Mammal Red List coordinator at the Endangered Wildlife Trust.
Causes of Past Decline Still Unclear
Despite the encouraging numbers, scientists caution that significant uncertainties remain. Between 1986 and 1994, the Marion Island population declined by 37% for reasons that are still not fully understood. Many researchers suspect reduced prey availability played a role, potentially linked to climate change and oceanographic shifts.
Nic Rawlence, a paleo-genetics expert at the University of Otago in New Zealand who has studied elephant seal lineages, said the downgrade to least concern was “surprising” given lingering questions about the causes of past declines. However, he acknowledged that the recovery suggests the ecosystem can currently sustain a larger population.
Researchers emphasize the need for multidisciplinary, international studies to better understand how climate variability, ocean circulation changes and food supply dynamics influence the species’ long-term stability.
A Mixed Global Picture
While South Africa’s population shows signs of resilience, the global outlook for southern elephant seals is more complex. The International Union for Conservation of Nature currently lists the species globally as least concern, noting limited interaction with fisheries and remote breeding habitats. However, populations in other regions face emerging threats.
In Argentina, for example, a recent outbreak of avian influenza has devastated marine mammal colonies, raising concerns about disease vulnerability among elephant seals in parts of South America.
Scientists say South Africa’s experience offers proof that sustained protection can yield positive outcomes. At the same time, they warn that climate-driven ocean changes and disease outbreaks could reshape the species’ global trajectory.
For now, the recovery on Marion and Prince Edward islands stands as a conservation success but one that requires continued vigilance to ensure it endures in a rapidly changing Southern Ocean.