Climate change is adding weeks of harmful heat to the world’s coffee-growing regions each year, threatening harvests and contributing to volatile prices, according to a new analysis by Climate Central.
The report finds that all 25 major coffee-producing countries responsible for about 97% of global supply experienced additional “coffee-harming” heat between 2021 and 2025 due to carbon pollution-driven warming.
Coffee is one of the world’s most consumed beverages, with more than 2 billion cups drunk daily. But rising temperatures and extreme weather are making it increasingly difficult to grow the crop, particularly in tropical regions known as the “bean belt.”
Using observed temperature data and counterfactual modeling through its Climate Shift Index, Climate Central calculated how often global warming pushed daily maximum temperatures beyond 30°C (86°F) a threshold considered extremely harmful for arabica coffee and suboptimal for robusta varieties.
On average, the 25 countries analyzed experienced about 47 additional days per year above this threshold because of climate change.
The impact was especially pronounced in the world’s top five producers Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia which together account for roughly 75% of global coffee output. These nations experienced an average of 57 extra days of coffee-harming heat annually due to climate change.
Brazil alone saw about 70 additional such days per year. In Minas Gerais, the country’s top coffee-growing state, the figure was 67 extra days annually.
Other countries hit hard by added heat include El Salvador with 99 additional days, Nicaragua with 77, and Thailand with 75.
Global coffee prices have been volatile in recent years, reaching record highs in December 2024 and again in February 2025. Analysts attribute part of the surge to extreme weather in major producing countries.
Coffee plants require specific temperature and rainfall conditions to thrive. Sustained heat above 30°C can reduce bean quality and yield, while droughts further stress crops. A 2023 drought in Brazil, for example, has been linked to recent supply constraints.
In the United States, additional factors such as tariffs on Brazilian imports have also influenced consumer prices. Brazil supplies roughly one-third of U.S. coffee imports.
Arabica coffee, which accounts for about 60–70% of global production, is more sensitive to heat than robusta. Research suggests even temperatures between 25°C and 30°C can be suboptimal for arabica growth, meaning the report’s 30°C threshold likely represents a conservative estimate of climate-related damage.
Arabica is typically grown at higher elevations, where cooler temperatures have historically provided a buffer against heat stress. But as warming continues, suitable growing areas are expected to shrink.
Some projections suggest that without adaptation, the amount of land suitable for coffee cultivation could decline by as much as 50% by 2050.
Heat is only part of the challenge. Coffee production depends on consistent annual rainfall of roughly 59 to 79 inches. Changing precipitation patterns and prolonged droughts can sharply reduce harvests.
Warmer temperatures also affect the spread of pests and diseases such as coffee leaf rust and the coffee berry borer, further threatening yields and farmer livelihoods.
Most coffee producers are smallholder farmers cultivating fewer than 12 acres. Many depend on coffee as their primary source of income, making them particularly vulnerable to climate shocks.
Farmers are exploring adaptation strategies to cope with rising temperatures. Shade-grown systems, where coffee plants are cultivated under a canopy of taller trees, can reduce heat stress while improving soil health and supporting biodiversity. However, full-sun cultivation often produces higher yields in the short term, presenting economic trade-offs.
As traditional coffee regions grow warmer, cultivation zones may shift to higher elevations or new geographic areas — a trend that could spur deforestation if not carefully managed.
The findings underscore the growing connection between climate change and food security. For coffee drinkers around the world, rising temperatures are increasingly shaping not just the price of a morning cup but the future of the crop itself.