In a significant development, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall for the country, particularly in the monsoon core zone crucial for rain-fed agriculture. This forecast comes amid an extreme heatwave that has gripped several parts of India, including Rajasthan’s Phalodi, which recently recorded a blistering 50 degrees Celsius. This is the highest temperature recorded since June 1, 2019, when Churu, also in Rajasthan, reached 50.8 degrees Celsius.
The scorching temperatures have turned daily life into a test of endurance, especially for those participating in the ongoing elections. In Delhi, the IMD has issued a red alert as Mungeshpur baked at 48.3 degrees Celsius, with the feel-like heat touching 49 degrees. The heatwave alert has been extended till May 29, as temperatures continue to soar.
The IMD’s forecast of above normal monsoon rainfall is a positive signal for the economy, especially for agriculture. There is a 61% probability of above normal rainfall during the June to September rainy season. However, relief from the current heatwave will not come soon for most parts of northwest India, which will continue to experience scorching temperatures in June, with only brief relief expected due to western disturbances.
Causes Behind the Extreme Heat
The extreme heat in India is attributed to several factors, including climate change and the El Niño effect. El Niño, which began in 2023, alters global weather patterns by shifting warm water to the eastern Pacific, causing hotter weather worldwide. This phenomenon is expected to last until June 2024, contributing to the extreme heat.
Heatwaves in India are triggered by a series of atmospheric and oceanic events. Persistent hot and dry conditions in the north-central region, similar to the 2015 event that claimed over 2,500 lives, are linked to stationary high-pressure systems. These systems disrupt normal weather patterns and allow slow-moving Rossby waves to transfer heat.
The Urban Heat Island Effect
Urban areas are particularly affected by the “urban heat island” effect, where densely built areas trap heat, reduce green spaces, and generate additional heat through human activities. This phenomenon exacerbates the overall rise in temperatures in cities.
Impact on Human Health
The intense heat and humidity disrupt the body’s ability to cool itself, leading to heat-related illnesses and potentially fatal outcomes. This dangerous combination is driving up the heat index, making the weather feel even more uncomfortable.
According to Tirthankar Banerjee from the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development at Banaras Hindu University, severe heatwaves cause immediate fatalities, while milder ones result in more deaths over time due to their frequency.
Economic Implications
A World Bank report predicts that by 2030, heat stress could lead to a global loss of 80 million jobs due to decreased productivity, with India potentially bearing 34 million of these job losses.
Edited by Dr. Brijendra Kumar Mishra, (Disaster Risk Reduction Expert)