Pre monsoon activity has intensified across southern India, and weather experts say the southwest monsoon remains on track for a timely arrival over Kerala around June 1. Fresh signals from Australia and shifting atmospheric patterns across the Indian Ocean are strengthening confidence in the seasonal forecast.
Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall have already been reported in parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The India Meteorological Department has forecast continued rain and thunderstorm activity across the southern peninsula over the coming week, indicating the gradual build up of monsoon conditions.
Weather systems across northern and eastern India are also showing signs of seasonal transition, with fluctuating temperatures, lightning, hailstorms and sudden rain spells becoming more frequent.
Meteorologists are closely watching developments in Australia, where the Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared the end of the 2025–26 northern wet season. While this may appear unrelated to India at first glance, experts say it plays an important role in the annual movement of the monsoon system.
The Indian monsoon is linked to a large tropical rain belt near the equator that shifts north and south with the Sun’s movement. As Australia moves into its dry phase, this rain-bearing belt begins drifting northward, pulling moisture-filled winds towards South Asia.
According to weather experts, the rain belt has already crossed the equator and is progressing towards the Maldives, Sri Lanka and the Andaman region, which traditionally marks the first stage of the monsoon’s advance towards mainland India.
Satellite observations have also shown increasing cloud activity and moisture build-up over the Indian Ocean, further supporting forecasts of a normal onset.
The southwest monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture, water supply and economy, providing nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall. A timely onset is especially important for farmers preparing for the kharif sowing season.
Scientists say the current atmospheric conditions remain favourable, although they continue to monitor ocean temperatures and the possible emergence of El Niño conditions later in the year, which could influence rainfall patterns during the peak monsoon months.
For now, forecasters believe the monsoon is progressing steadily, with all major indicators pointing towards a normal seasonal arrival over the Indian coast.