A global push to protect 30 percent of the planet’s land and oceans by 2030 could become one of the world’s biggest environmental and social transformations, but researchers warn that conservation efforts will only succeed if local communities and Indigenous populations remain central to the process.
The warning comes from a new study published in Nature Communications, which examined the social impact of the United Nations’ “30×30” biodiversity target agreed upon by 196 countries in 2022.
The research found that future conservation expansion could directly affect billions of people depending on where and how protected areas are established.
Conservation Expansion Could Affect Billions
Scientists involved in the study analysed different strategies for reaching the 30 percent conservation goal and found major differences in their social consequences.
One approach focused on protecting the most biodiverse unprotected regions would directly affect more than 3.5 billion people living within or near newly protected areas. That represents nearly half of the world’s population.
Another strategy centred on lands already managed by Indigenous peoples and local communities would affect around 300 million people. However, researchers noted that many of these communities depend heavily on natural resources for farming, grazing, and livelihoods, making them especially vulnerable to restrictions on land access.
According to Chris Sandbrook of the University of Cambridge, conservation can no longer be viewed as something separate from human society.
Food Production and Conservation May Clash
The study also highlighted growing tensions between biodiversity protection and global food security.
Researchers found that in some conservation models, nearly half of the targeted areas overlap with farmland used for crop production. Other proposed conservation zones include major livestock grazing regions where traditional herding communities live and work.
Scientists say balancing environmental protection with rising food demand will become one of the biggest challenges in implementing the 30×30 target.
Protected Areas Are Changing
Historically, many conservation areas have been located in remote regions with low human populations. Some have even excluded local communities entirely.
But researchers say future conservation efforts will increasingly expand into landscapes where people actively live, farm, fish, and depend on nature for survival.
The study noted that conservation models now range from strict national parks like Yellowstone National Park and Serengeti National Park to community managed landscapes where sustainable use of biodiversity is allowed.
Social Benefits and Risks
Researchers said conservation projects can bring major benefits, including job creation, tourism opportunities, climate protection, and support for long-term food systems.
However, poorly designed projects can also create serious social costs, including land disputes, displacement from ancestral territories, reduced access to natural resources, and increased conflict between humans and wildlife.
The study stressed that conservation planning must account for the unique social conditions of each region rather than applying a single global model.
Indigenous Rights Seen as Key to Success
The researchers pointed out that the UN biodiversity agreement already includes commitments to respect the rights and territories of Indigenous peoples and local communities.
Experts say these protections are critical if conservation goals are to succeed without worsening poverty or inequality.
The study concluded that the 30×30 initiative should be viewed not only as an environmental target, but also as a major social development challenge requiring investment in local livelihoods, governance, and community participation.
Scientists believe the global conservation effort could become a major win for both biodiversity and society but only if people remain part of the plan rather than being excluded from it.