A new international study has found that India, Brazil and Indonesia can significantly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 through better management of forests, farmlands and natural ecosystems, without relying heavily on changes in people’s diets or reductions in food production.
The research, conducted by scientists from institutions across France, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Austria and Japan, highlights the crucial role of the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in helping developing countries achieve their climate goals. The findings suggest that transforming land-use practices could become one of the most effective ways for these countries to combat climate change while protecting food security and rural livelihoods.
According to the study, India, Brazil and Indonesia are among the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases from agriculture and land use activities. At the same time, they possess enormous potential to cut emissions through conservation efforts and sustainable land management.
Researchers identified forests and soils as powerful natural carbon sinks that can absorb and store large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Protecting and restoring these ecosystems could therefore play a major role in reducing global emissions.
The study found that each country requires a different strategy based on its environmental conditions and economic priorities.
In Brazil, the largest climate benefits would come from rapidly reducing deforestation and expanding forest plantations. The country’s vast forest ecosystems already store enormous amounts of carbon, and preventing further forest loss could generate substantial emissions reductions.
Indonesia’s climate strategy focuses on protecting carbon-rich peatlands and reducing forest fires. Peatlands contain large quantities of stored carbon, and their degradation releases significant greenhouse gas emissions. Conserving these ecosystems could deliver major climate benefits while preserving biodiversity.
For India, the solution lies largely in improving agricultural soils and expanding agroforestry. Researchers found that increasing carbon storage in farmland soils and planting more trees on agricultural land could help absorb millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide. These measures could also improve soil health, increase farm productivity and provide additional income opportunities for farmers.
One of the study’s key findings is that strict reductions in agricultural production or major dietary shifts are unlikely to be the primary drivers of emissions reductions in these countries. Researchers argue that climate policies focused heavily on reducing food production could threaten food security and negatively affect rural communities that depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.
Instead, the study recommends improving farming efficiency, enhancing crop yields and protecting natural ecosystems. This approach allows countries to pursue climate goals while supporting economic development and ensuring adequate food supplies for growing populations.
To reach their conclusions, researchers developed detailed computer models that combined agricultural, environmental and economic data. These models simulated how various policy choices could affect emissions, crop production and economic growth over the coming decades.
While the study provides a realistic pathway for decarbonisation, researchers acknowledged certain limitations. The models could not fully account for future climate-related disruptions such as severe droughts, heatwaves and unpredictable rainfall patterns, which may affect agricultural productivity.
Despite these uncertainties, the findings offer policymakers a practical roadmap for balancing climate action with economic and social priorities. The study concludes that protecting forests, restoring ecosystems and improving land management practices can help India, Brazil and Indonesia make substantial progress toward climate goals without compromising food security or rural livelihoods.