India has entered a period of heightened agricultural vigilance after the official arrival of El Niño climate phenomenon associated with reduced monsoon rainfall across large parts of the country. With forecasts indicating a higher likelihood of below normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season Union government has moved into crisis preparedness mode identifying up to 200 vulnerable districts and ordering revisions to district level agricultural contingency plans.
The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formally declared the onset of El Niño on June 11, 2026. Scientists have warned that the event could strengthen significantly in the coming months, with some projections suggesting the possibility of a “super” El Niño. Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90 per cent of the long period average, placing the season in the below normal category and raising concerns about agricultural stress across several regions.
In response Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has directed the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), state agricultural universities and agriculture departments to update existing district contingency plans. Most of the current plans are more than a decade old and are considered inadequate for the challenges posed by this year climatic conditions.
Officials have identified between 150 and 200 districts as particularly vulnerable. Areas expected to face the greatest rainfall deficiency include the Marathwada North Karnataka belt, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand. Only a few coastal regions and parts of Telangana are projected to face relatively lower risk.
The revised contingency plans are expected to provide detailed, stage wise guidance for farmers. These may include recommendations on alternative crops, irrigation management, drought mitigation measures, and specific actions to be taken if rainfall deficits intensify during critical months such as August, which is crucial for standing kharif crops.
Alongside these efforts a multi ministry task force comprising officials from the agriculture ministry, ICAR, commerce departments, and planning bodies is assessing the likely impact of El Niño on major crops. The group is also examining alternative cropping strategies and identifying possible import sources for agricultural commodities in case domestic production falls short.
The concern extends beyond the current kharif season. Officials fear that a prolonged rainfall deficit could affect reservoir storage levels, irrigation availability, and even the subsequent rabi season. Data from the Central Water Commission show that reservoir storage declined by nearly 8 billion cubic metres within two weeks during May, highlighting the importance of adequate monsoon recharge.
Particular concern surrounds India’s ongoing pulses and oilseeds missions, both aimed at reducing dependence on imports. Since nearly 90 per cent of the cultivated area under these crops remains rain-fed, a weak monsoon could significantly affect production despite government efforts to expand domestic output.
However, agricultural experts caution against assuming that El Niño automatically translates into severe crop losses. Historical experiences have shown varied outcomes. While the 2002 El Niño caused a severe rainfall deficit, a stronger El Niño event in 2015 resulted in a comparatively smaller monsoon shortfall. Advances in irrigation, improved crop management practices, and the adoption of drought and heat tolerant crop varieties have strengthened India’s agricultural resilience over the years.
Recent production figures also offer some reassurance. During the 2023-24 El Niño episode, India recorded food grain production of over 332 million tonnes, higher than the previous year. Production further increased to a record 357.73 million tonnes in 2024-25.
Nevertheless experts warn that localised droughts, heatwaves, pest outbreaks, and disease pressures could still cause significant damage in specific regions. Even when national food production remains stable, such localised shocks can reduce supplies, increase food prices, and contribute to inflation.
As the monsoon season progresses, the effectiveness of revised contingency plans, water management strategies, and farmer advisories will play a crucial role in determining how successfully India navigates the challenges posed by the developing El Niño event.