Srinagar: A new study by the University of Kashmir has identified five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya that are highly vulnerable to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) raising concerns about the safety of thousands of people living downstream. Among the lakes flagged as high risk are Gangabal and Nundkol, located beneath the iconic Harmukh Peak in Ganderbal district. Despite the findings local residents and shepherds say they have not received any warning, evacuation guidance or information about the potential dangers.
The study published in the Journal of Glaciology examined 155 glacial lakes using satellite data collected between 1992 and 2024. Researchers found that ice contact lakes in the region have expanded by 26 percent during this period, while the glaciers feeding them are shrinking at an alarming rate of 0.66 metres annually. Scientists estimate that a flood originating from Nundkol Lake alone could impact 1,184 buildings, four bridges and a hydropower project downstream.
Study Warns of Growing Threat as Glaciers Retreat
Researchers say Gangabal and Nundkol drain into Wangath Nullah which eventually joins the Sindh River. Together with three other high risk lakes, they could threaten more than 2,700 buildings and 15 bridges across districts including Ganderbal, Shopian, and Kulgam if a major outburst flood occurs.
The study emphasizes that while the lakes do not currently show signs of an immediate breach the physical conditions that could trigger such an event already exist. Rising temperatures, glacier retreat, and unstable slopes are increasing the vulnerability of these lakes. According to the study, average maximum temperatures in the Kashmir Himalaya have risen by 1.4 degrees Celsius over the past four decades. The region also falls within India’s highest earthquake risk zone, adding another layer of concern.
Scientists explain that glacial lakes form when retreating glaciers leave behind natural dams made of loose rocks and debris. These fragile barriers can fail due to earthquakes, avalanches, heavy rainfall, or increasing water pressure, releasing massive amounts of water and debris downstream within a short time.
No Early Warning System Despite Identified Risks
One of the most alarming findings is the absence of any early warning infrastructure around the vulnerable lakes. Researchers say there are currently no sensors, sirens monitoring systems, or community alert mechanisms in place for residents living downstream.
Environmental activist Raja Muzaffar Bhat criticized authorities for failing to communicate risks to local communities. He said people living in vulnerable areas have not been informed in local languages about the potential dangers or preparedness measures. According to him awareness and communication are just as important as scientific assessments when it comes to reducing disaster risks.
Local shepherds who have spent generations grazing livestock around the lakes, acknowledge that glaciers appear to be retreating but say they do not understand what the changes could mean for nearby villages. Many claim they have never received official information about the possibility of glacial lake outburst floods.
Researchers have recommended immediate steps including installing time lapse cameras, water level sensors, weather monitoring stations, and community based warning systems. They also suggest restricting construction in flood prone areas and strengthening natural dam structures where possible.
Experts stress that the current classification of the lakes as “highly susceptible” does not mean an outburst is imminent. However, they warn that climate change is rapidly altering mountain environments making preparedness and monitoring essential. With no official response or warning system currently in place, many residents remain unaware of the potential risks posed by Kashmir rapidly changing glaciers.