New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the southwest monsoon is likely to weaken across parts of western and southern India over the next two weeks, raising concerns about delayed crop sowing and agricultural output in key farming regions.
According to IMD scientists, below average rainfall is expected in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala due to an unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the low likelihood of new low pressure systems forming during the period. The MJO a tropical weather pattern that influences rainfall is currently not in a phase that supports active monsoon conditions.
The southwest monsoon provides nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall, making it vital for agriculture water resources and rural livelihoods. Nearly half of India’s farmland depends on monsoon rains because it lacks irrigation facilities.
Although heavy rainfall during the first week of July, particularly along the west coast, reduced the country’s overall rainfall deficit to 15.2% weather officials expect the deficit to widen again as the monsoon enters a temporary weak phase.
The subdued rainfall has already affected agricultural activity. Government data show that by July 5 farmers had sown summer crops over 35 million hectares around 21% lower than the same period last year. Crops such as rice, cotton, maize (corn) and soybeans have experienced slower planting due to weak rainfall in June.
To help farmers cope with uncertain rainfall, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has advised the cultivation of short duration and less water intensive crops including maize, pearl millet and green gram.
Agricultural experts caution that while recent showers have encouraged sowing in rain-fed regions of central, western and southern India, an extended dry spell immediately afterward could hamper germination and early crop growth potentially affecting yields during the current kharif season.