In a pioneering effort to revolutionize extreme weather forecasting and early warning systems, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), Oxford University Physics Department, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), and various national meteorology agencies across East Africa have joined forces. This initiative comes at a crucial time for East Africa, where climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, from devastating droughts to deadly floods.
Dr. Shruti Nath, a climate scientist at Oxford University Physics, emphasized the transformative potential of the new AI-based weather forecasting approach. Traditional models often fall short in predicting extreme weather, particularly in regions with limited resources and infrastructure. However, the AI-enhanced models developed at Oxford offer high-resolution, localized predictions without the need for expensive supercomputers.
“By collaborating with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we combine our understanding of physical atmospheric processes with the latest AI and machine learning advancements to deliver more accurate and local predictions,” said Dr. Nath. “This enables countries and regions to better anticipate and prepare for extreme weather.”
Jesse Mason, Global Head of the Anticipatory Action Programme at WFP, highlighted the significance of accurate early warnings in disaster risk management. “We have an opportunity to change the way we see hazards forming and transform humanitarian responses from reactive to preventative measures, ultimately saving more lives and reducing disaster relief costs,” Mason said.
The initiative is already yielding promising results. Hannah Wangari, Assistant Director at the Kenyan Meteorological Department (KMD), noted significant improvements in forecast accuracy using the new machine learning models developed by Oxford University Physics.
Regional collaboration is a cornerstone of this project. As the regional climate center for Eastern Africa, ICPAC leads the capacity-building efforts of its 11 member states, ensuring the scalability of cutting-edge forecasting technology. National meteorological agencies, including the Kenya Meteorological Department and the Ethiopia Meteorological Institute, tailor the technology to meet the specific needs of their communities.
Supported by Google.org through World Food Program USA, this initiative aims to extend its impact beyond East Africa, seeking to replicate the model in other regions facing similar climate challenges. By refining AI-based models and expanding partnerships, the goal is to build a more resilient global community capable of withstanding the worsening impacts of climate change.
“We believe the approach we have pioneered and are using here is a game-changer for parts of the world which have previously suffered from a lack of resources and infrastructure but nonetheless find themselves bearing the brunt of climate change,” said Dr. Nath.