Traditional ecological knowledge passed down through generations is gaining renewed attention as scientists and policymakers recognise its value in understanding and adapting to climate change. For centuries, indigenous communities have relied on observations of plants, animals, birds, insects, stars and seasonal changes to anticipate rainfall, droughts and other environmental shifts. These local forecasting systems continue to influence farming decisions in many regions.
In Jharkhand’s Khunti district, members of the Munda community monitor the flowering and fruiting of the aankhor tree (Alangium salvifolium) as an indicator of the upcoming monsoon. This year, the tree failed to flower, leading some farmers to switch from water-intensive paddy cultivation to crops such as finger millet due to fears of poor rainfall. The delayed monsoon has reinforced local confidence in these traditional observations.
Community members also associate bumper mango harvests with monsoons accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and hail, while noting that rainfall patterns linked to festivals such as Akshaya Tritiya have become increasingly unreliable, reflecting changing climate conditions.
Experts say indigenous forecasting systems are based on multiple environmental indicators rather than a single sign. Communities combine observations of plant growth, bird migration, insect behaviour, groundwater levels, wind patterns and seasonal timing to understand environmental changes and guide agricultural practices.
Researchers are increasingly comparing such traditional knowledge with scientific data. A study published in the journal Pastoralism in 2022 found that drought forecasts made by Ethiopia’s Gujii community matched meteorological records in 14 out of 23 years between 1994 and 2016. The community uses observations of specific star constellations alongside other environmental indicators to predict seasonal rainfall.
Scientists say these traditional knowledge systems can complement modern climate science by providing hyperlocal insights, particularly for slow-onset events such as droughts. As climate change increases the frequency of extreme and unpredictable weather, researchers believe integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific forecasting could strengthen climate adaptation strategies and improve resilience in vulnerable communities.